A gust of optimism is blowing over the world economy
At the end of the first quarter of 2017, we were wondering whether the timid global economic recovery was a flash in the pan. Three months later, the ongoing recovery seems to be a lasting one, given the economic rally in a considerable number of industrial sectorsand in Europe, even if a few rain clouds on the horizon, in the United States and in China, darken the picture.
In this barometer, we observe that in the United States, the slowdown in consumption, the still unclear outlines of the fiscal stimulus and the investment plan announced by the White House,as well as the rise in interest rates are elementsto be monitored. In the euro area, good newsare accumulating: the easing in credit conditionsfinally boosts business investment; growthexceeds expectations; business confidence hasbeen at its highest for six years; consumer sentimentis on the rise. With the notable exception ofthe United Kingdom, we estimate that businessinsolvencies will decline in Europe and we thusupgrade Spain to A2 from A3 and Portugal toA3 from A4.
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