COUNTRY & SECTOR RISK BAROMETER: Q4 2019 QUARTERLY UPDATE
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The total number of protectionist measures implemented worldwide exceeded 1 ,000 in 2018 and 2019 according to Global Trade Alert, about 40% more than in the previous three years. That said, “only” 23% of all protectionist measures taken between January 1, 2017 and November 15, 2019 were taken by the United States or China. Therefore, protectionism is not exclusive to the world’s two largest economies and the so-called “phase-one” deal to pause the trade war between them is unlikely to be sufficient to put an end to uncertainties related to trade tensions, which cut global GDP growth by around a quarter of a percentage point in 2019. Hence, Coface expects a pursuit of the global economic slowdown in 2020, with global GDP growth forecasted at 2.4%, down from 2.5% the previous year. Coface expects global trade growth to remain weak in 2020 (only +0.8% in volume terms), following a decline by 0.3% in Q3 2019 year-on-year, i.e. the slowest pace since the great crisis of 2008-2009.