Coface Ülke Riskleri Güncellendi
In this panorama, we first set out a study examining the economic situation and outlook for SubSaharan Africa. After a long period of gloominess, the economic weather became more favorable despite the Lehmann Brothers bankruptcy in 2008 and the eurozone sovereign debt risis. This part of the world has managed to benefit from structural reforms, public finances consolidation, significant foreign investments, abundant global liquidity and By Coface Group Economists more stable political environments. The fall in global raw materials prices reshuffles the deck and the sky could turn grey. However, situations differ from one country to another. Some are suffering and will continue to suffer from the deteriorating weather while others, which already started to diversify their economies,should be protected from the storm.
With this issue we are also publishing our quarterly barometer of worldwide trends in country risk. We explain why we have upgraded our risk assessments for Portugal, the Czech Republic and Vietnam. We also explain why we give a negative assessment for the prospects for Algeria, Bahrain, Canada, Gabon, Madagascar, South Africa and Tanzania and why we have downgraded our assessment for China.
Readers will find updated reports for some of these countries setting out their economic situation in more detail at the end of the panorama. Readers will also find updated country analysis for Angola, Argentina and Egypt.
Most of the sub-Saharan economies have been enjoying fine weather since 2008: growth in the region has reached nearly 5% p.a. on average since that date, despite the storms (Lehman Brothers collapse and sovereign debt crisis in the eurozone) or at best very cloudy weather (declining growth trend
for the large emerging countries) in the rest of the world. The reasons for this fair weather are many: structural readjustment linked to a relatively low initial per capita wage level, high foreign investments in a context of abundant world liquidity, more stable political environments, as well as public finances
in better order thanks to numerous debt cancellations. Among them were also the high prices of raw materials, on which the region is very dependent: oil, metals, minerals and foodstuffs account for 80% of exports. The sharp fall in global raw materials prices over the last year therefore means economic clouds are looming on the region’s horizon. But has the weather worsened uniformly in all the countries? Which countries are coming out best in this unfavourable environment? Are there other sources of growth to protect these countries from the coming headwinds? To answer these questions, this study first identifies the countries for which the risk of darker economic clouds is particularly great, i.e. those which have been hardest hit by the recent fall in raw materials prices. To do this, we distinguish particularly the countries which export non-renewable raw materials (oil, metals and minerals) from those that export renewables (food and agricultural products), the prices of the first having fallen more than those of the second during the past year(part 1). But, among the countries where the risk of bad economic weather is highest, some will stay 'dry' because they have an umbrella to protect them: these countries have begun to diversify their exports and, more generally, their economy allowing them to shelter from the adverse conditions
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