New Zealand

Economy on the mend but risks impact the outlook

Economic growth resumed in 2025 after the country experienced a worrying recession. Activity contracted by 0.5% in 2024 due to tight financial conditions affecting investment and (highly indebted) households, while trade performance was poor as a result of weak growth in China, the country's main export destination. In addition, the winter energy crisis prompted many businesses to cease operations due to soaring electricity prices. Meanwhile, productivity has fallen further, increasing unit labour costs and putting additional pressure on company margins.

The economy picked up in 2025, driven by continued recovery in tourism (around 6% of GDP) and the monetary easing initiated by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) in August 2024, which supports investment and household consumption. In the first quarter of 2025, foreign arrivals reached 94% of pre-Covid levels (2019) in the same period, and policies such as relaxed visa requirements should further support tourism. Meanwhile, after increasing the official cash rate (OCR) to 5.5% in 2023, the highest level since 2008, the RBNZ has cut it six times since August 2024 for a total of 225 basis points (at June 2025). Lower inflation and the rising unemployment rate have prompted monetary easing, in light of the RBNZ's dual mandate of stabilising inflation around 2% and supporting maximum sustainable employment. Despite an acceleration in inflation to 2.5% in Q1 25, the latter remains within the RBNZ's target range (1-3%), and the struggle to recover from the recession suggests the prospect of further cuts. In this context, the plunge in residential construction seen in 2024 could come to an end from 2026 as the sector showed signs of stabilising in early 2025. There are fewer labour shortages (thanks in part to an increase in net migration), and cost pressures (material, borrowing costs) have eased. The upward trend in economic activity should continue into 2026, although risks clouding the outlook.

Trade restrictions add uncertainty to the island's economic recovery. Given New Zealand's relatively small contribution to the US trade deficit, the country has only received a preferential tariff of 10%. But as the tariffs are likely to be passed on to US consumers, they could inflate prices on US markets, thereby impacting demand for Kiwi products. Certain sectors are particularly at risk given their exposure to the US market, notably dairy products, meat and wine. In addition, New Zealand’s economy could be affected by indirect impacts, notably due to a drop in global growth, and particularly that of China, its main export market after the US.

Persistent fiscal deficit

While fiscal revenues are expected to increase for the 2025 budget ending in June 2026, the increase in expenditure is expected to be greater. Consequently, the deficit in the operating balance excluding gains and losses (OBEGAL or budget balance) is expected to widen slightly, with the government forecasting a return to a balanced budget in 2028. To boost company investment and tackle declining productivity, the government intends to implement a 20% tax deduction on new productive assets (machinery, tools and equipment). This will reduce potential tax revenues, but apart from that, the fiscal framework remains stable. Consequently, the expected economic recovery should increase the tax base and thus contribute to higher tax revenues. In addition, health, infrastructure, education, defence, and law and order are among the sectors that will receive a significant share of new spending. Another key budget measure is to implement changes to the KiwiSaver system, which is designed to encourage investment by Kiwis in the face of a rising cost of living. The changes include an increase in the default rate of employee and employer contributions, which will more than offset the decline in government’s contribution. These changes should support the local economy, as KiwiSaver funds are invested in New Zealand assets.

New Zealand's current account deficit has tended to narrow in recent years, after peaking in 2022 due to a drastic increase in global commodities prices. The lower current account deficit trend is set to continue in 2025. The goods trade deficit should continue to decline due to the expected global drop in commodities costs, implying downward pressures on import prices. In addition, US trade barriers are likely to trigger a global decrease in goods prices in search of alternative markets. However, this is partially offset by exports affected by sluggish global demand amid heightened trade tensions and by the RBNZ’s monetary easing policy which has created currency depreciation pressures, and consequently, upward pressure on import prices. Meanwhile, the services deficit should continue to narrow and could even turn into a surplus thanks to the recovery in inbound tourism. The current account deficit is traditionally financed by financial and capital inflows, both in the form of direct and portfolio investments. Foreign reserves which represented around four months of imports in 2024 may also contribute to the financing. Risks relating to a possible depletion of international reserves are limited as the country’s external debt (86% of GDP, and the sovereign part accounting for 45% of GDP) is mainly denominated in local currency.

Politics veer to the right

The October 2023 elections resulted in a relative victory for the National Party, led by Christopher Luxon, which won 38.1% of the vote. Garnering only 48 seats out of a total of 123, the National Party was unable to govern alone and formed a coalition with the ACT Party (11 seats) and New Zealand First (8 seats). The right-wing takeover represents a major turning point in the country's politics, ending the left-wing Labor Party's six-year tenure. The ruling coalition is attempting to reverse many of Labor's policies, including Maori privileges and rights, progressive social reforms and environmental regulations.

On the diplomatic scene, US-China rivalry poses challenges to New Zealand. Washington is a long-standing diplomatic and security alliance partner. Meanwhile, Beijing is by far the largest destination of New Zealand’s exports. In a bid to maintain a good relationship with both countries, former PM Hipkins visited China in June 2023. Nevertheless, under the new coalition, geopolitical alignment has shifted toward closer ties with Western allies (the Five Eyes alliance and AUKUS). Moreover, the appointment as Foreign Minister of Winston Peters, leader of New Zealand First and a critic of Beijing, may cool the relationship between the two countries.

Payment

Primary payment methods in New Zealand consist of card (debit card and credit card) and electronic credit or debit (direct debits and credits, automated bill payments and electronic transfers). There has been a rapid increase in the use of contactless payments, mobile phone-based applications, and payments using the internet. Although cash remains important, its use is reducing significantly and cheque usage halved between 2013 and 2016. Wire transfers and SWIFT bank transfers are the most commonly used payment methods for domestic and international transactions. Most of New Zealand’s banks are connected to the SWIFT network.

Debt Collection

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The debt collection process usually begins with serving a letter of demand, where the creditor notifies the debtor of their payment obligations (including any contractual interest due) with a time limit for making the payment.

SUMMARY JUDGMENT PROCEEDINGS

If the creditor does not receive payment after issuing a letter of demand, a next possible step is to issue summary judgment proceedings. This procedure is intended for situations where the debtor has no defence against the claim. An application can be made to the District Court or High Court, depending on the value of the claim. The District Court has jurisdiction to hear matters for claims up to NZD 350,000, and the High Court typically hears matters for claims above NZD 350,000. A statement of claim must be filed, along with a notice of proceedings, an application for summary judgment and a supporting affidavit by the creditor (or in the case of a company, an individual with personal knowledge of the facts who is authorised to submit an affidavit on behalf of the company), which sets out the facts of the claim. A summary judgment typically involves a hearing, which lasts around one day (if the debtor raises a defence), with evidence given by way of affidavit rather than requiring witnesses. If the application is successful, the Court may enter a judgment in favour of the creditor. If the application is undefended, judgment may be entered by default in favour of the creditor, without the need for a full hearing although an appearance in Court to call the matter will be required. If the defendant is able to show an arguable defence, the Court may decline summary judgment and direct the matter to be heard as an ordinary proceeding.

ORDINARY PROCEEDINGS

Ordinary proceedings are used where summary judgment is unavailable because the debtor has raised a genuine defence, or if summary judgment is not granted. Ordinary proceedings are initiated by filing a notice of proceeding and a statement of claim. Depending on the value of the claim (as outlined above), these proceedings can take place in the District Court or the High Court. Unlike summary judgment, an ordinary defended proceeding may involve additional processes, such as discovery, hearing of evidence and interlocutory applications, or serving of briefs of evidence, depending on the nature of the proceeding.

APPEALS

The High Court determines appeals from the District Court. The Court of Appeal has jurisdiction to hear appeals from the High Court. Appeals are generally restricted to questions of law only. Appeals to the highest appellate court in New Zealand, the Supreme Court, can only be heard with leave of that Court. Leave will be granted if the Supreme Court is satisfied that it is necessary in the interests of justice to hear the appeal.

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Enforcement of a Legal Decision

If the Court enters judgment in favour of the creditor, there is no appeal, or all appeal avenues have been exhausted, the creditor can apply to the High Court, or District Court (depending on the value of the claim as outlined above), seeking enforcement action. This can include a deduction from the debtor’s wages or benefits (if the debtor is an individual), seizure of property, garnishee proceedings, or placing a charge on the debtor’s property. Foreign judgments must first be recognised by the Court under the Reciprocal Enforcement of Judgments Act 1934, or common law.

Insolvency Proceedings

BANKRUPTCY

If the creditor does not receive payment after obtaining judgment against a debtor and that debtor is an individual, the creditor can issue a bankruptcy notice served on the debtor. Failure by the debtor to comply with a bankruptcy notice is considered by the law to be an act of bankruptcy.

STATUTORY DEMAND

If the debtor does not make payment pursuant to the letter of demand and that debtor is a company, a further potential step is for the creditor to prepare and serve a statutory demand for the outstanding debt. This can be used as an alternative to summary judgment or ordinary proceedings. A statutory demand can only be issued if there is no substantial dispute over the debt. Once the statutory demand is served on the debtor, the debtor has 15 working days to pay the debt, or to enter into an arrangement for payment which is agreed by the creditor. If the debtor company does not make payment pursuant to the statutory demand, the creditor has a further 30 working days to commence liquidation proceedings against the debtor company, using non-compliance with the statutory demand as evidence of the debtor’s inability to pay its due debts. However, a debtor company can make an application to set aside a statutory demand within 10 working days of being served with it. The Court may set aside the statutory demand if there is a substantial dispute as to whether or not the debt is due, if the debtor company has a counterclaim, set-off or cross-demand, or if there are other adequate grounds to do so.

LIQUIDATION

Liquidation involves the realisation and distribution of a debtor company’s assets when the company is insolvent, or does not expect to remain in business. A liquidator is appointed to the company, who takes over the management of the company, realises its assets, pays its creditors and distributes the remainder to its shareholders.

CREDITORS’ COMPROMISE

There are two potential forms of creditors compromise, either an informal agreement between debtor and creditor, or a formal creditors’ compromise under the Companies Act 1993. A formal creditors’ compromise is a binding agreement between a debtor company and its creditor(s) regarding the payment of its debts, with terms and conditions that are less exacting than the strict legal rights of creditors. A compromise may involve payments over time, deferred payments, or accepting a lesser sum in full and final settlement of the debt. Once a creditors’ compromise is approved by the required majority of creditors, or the Court, the compromise binds all creditors. An equivalent procedure exists for individuals under the Insolvency Act 2006.

VOLUNTARY ADMINISTRATION

The debtor company may go into voluntary administration to try and maximise the chances of an insolvent company continuing to operate, or if that is not possible, to allow for a better return for creditors than immediate liquidation. It enhances the existing creditors’ compromise procedure as an alternative to liquidation, by imposing a moratorium on creditors taking steps to enforce their debts.

Last updated: June 2025