HABERLER & YAYINLAR

YENİ NE VAR?

01.06.2018
EKONOMİ YAYINLARI

Tüm Coface Yayınları

25.05.2018
Kurumsal Yayınlar

Political Risk in Latin America: Back to the future?

Latin America has experienced a diffi cult period since 2014. The slump in commodity prices has impacted activity via several channels (such as lower investments, export revenues, and a tighter
public budget). After two years of recession, the region’s GDP growth fi nally rebounded in 2017 by an estimated 1.1% year-on-year, and is expected to gain further traction in 2018 (growth forecast: +2.4% YOY). However, this optimistic outlook is linked to favourable global trends than domestic merits. Although a still-gradual tightening monetary cycle in advanced economies (especially in the United States), as well as a soft deceleration in China and the resulting improvement in commodity prices, has aided Latin America, the poor political environment has stained the region’s image in the eyes of much-needed foreign investors – particularly with the multiple political and governmental corruption scandals since 2014.

Daha Fazlasını Oku
15.05.2018
Kurumsal Yayınlar

Western Balkans and the European Union: political ties lagging behind economic ones

Despite regional confl icts, the 2007-08 fi nancial crisis, and the 2009-11 eurozone crisis, Western Balkans countries1 have developed a close economic proximity with the European Union via a number of regional and bilateral agreements. However, due to institutional, economic, and diplomatic obstacles, accession to the EU will be a long process. At the same time, due to the region’s strategic importance and with the reinforcement of membership conditions, accession (or a pre-accession status) is likely to happen – especially as membership would divert the region from other interested parties (Russia, China).

Daha Fazlasını Oku
24.04.2018
Kurumsal Yayınlar

Currency Risk in Africa: easing in 2018, but reserves have melted

The exchange rate risk is still relevant on the African continent, as evidenced by the depreciation of the Angolan kwanza by more than 30% since the partial liberalisation of the exchange rate regime in January 2018. The shock of falling commodity prices, particularly oil prices from summer 2014 onwards, destabilised many African countries. In the wake of the poor performance of its main economies (Nigeria, South Africa, Angola), the region’s growth slowed to its lowest level for 20 years in 2016. In addition to the slowdown in activity, commodity price developments have resulted in deteriorating terms of trade1 and downward pressure on most African currencies.

Daha Fazlasını Oku
12.04.2018
Kurumsal Yayınlar

Beyond the peak of global growth

Positive economic signs continued to accumulate in 2018 during the first quarter. There was sustained growth in investment and a situation of almost full employment in more and more countries, which encouraged households to consume more. Companies are taking full advantage of this virtuous circle and the number of insolvencies in the Eurozone and the United States is expected to fall again this year, by 7% and 5% respectively.

Daha Fazlasını Oku
12.04.2018
EKONOMİ YAYINLARI

The new Mediterranean trade routes

The return to protectionism on the international scene has, once again, put the spotlight on free trade agreements. At a time when America is closing up, other regions of the world have decided to open their doors, reshaping international trade alliances. This push towards liberalisation could give new momentum to a cooperation attempt set in motion nearly thirty years ago, in one of the world’s oldest trading regions. In 1995, Mediterranean countries embarked on a major project to create an integrated economic area. This ambitious scheme, known as the Barcelona Process, was to be based on a comprehensive free trade agreement. It was to be built on the European model, with the aim of enabling free movement of goods within the Mediterranean region. Where exactly do we stand with this scheme today?

Daha Fazlasını Oku
12.04.2018
Kurumsal Yayınlar

SECTOR RISK ASSESSMENTS • 1st quarter 2018

13 MAJOR SECTORS ASSESSED WORLDWIDE

Coface assessments are based on 70 years of Coface expertise
Financial data published by listed companies from 6 geographical regions
5 financial indicators taken into account: turnover, profitability, the net debt ratio, cashflow, and claims observed by our risk managers

Daha Fazlasını Oku
12.04.2018
Kurumsal Yayınlar

NEW MEDITERRANEAN TRADE ROUTES

Competition between the South and the East because of their economic similarities
Increased regional protectionism 381 new net measures since 2012
Consequences of the Arab Spring
Uncertain business environment

Daha Fazlasını Oku
12.04.2018
Kurumsal Yayınlar

COUNTRY RISK ASSESSMENT MAP • 1st QUARTER 2018

160 COUNTRIES UNDER THE MAGNIFYING GLASS

A UNIQUE METHODOLOGY
• Macroeconomic expertise in assessing country risk
• Comprehension of the business environment
• Microeconomic data collected over 70 years of payment experience

Daha Fazlasını Oku
03.04.2018
Kurumsal Yayınlar

China Corporate Payment Survey 2018: payment delays increase despite rapid and robust growth

The Chinese economy staged a comeback in 2017. GDP ticked up from 6.7% in 2016 to 6.9% in 2017, favoured by strong demand, as well as loose monetary and fiscal policy settings. As a result, risk managers have become more complacent, both in terms of their economic expectations and their risk management procedures.

Coface has been conducting annual surveys covering companies’ payment experiences in China since 2003. The aim of this exercise is to better understand corporate credit management practices and payment experiences. In our latest survey, data collection was conducted during the final quarter of 2017, and valid responses were received from 1,003 companies.

Daha Fazlasını Oku
30.03.2018
Kurumsal Yayınlar

The singularity of political risk in Central and Eastern Europe

With the ongoing wave of elections in the Central and Eastern Europe region, CEE countries are experiencing a key period of change in a context of political risk and economic acceleration, which currently seem to be the two crucial issues attributed to the region. The region’s average GDP growth rate soared to 4.5% in 2017, i.e. the highest level since 2010. However, local politics and national judiciary system changes are creating problems for the region. Worsening relations with the European Union (EU) and a threat of sanctions for Poland have raised additional concerns.

Daha Fazlasını Oku
19.03.2018
Kurumsal Yayınlar

Clash of the Titans: China’s rise fuels competition with Japan’s interests in Asia

China has undoubtedly modelled itself as the new champion of globalisation. Nowhere is this felt more strongly than in Asia. Since its accession to the World Trade Organization (WTO) in 2001, the country has positioned itself at the core of the world’s most important supply chains, rapidly becoming the largest trade partner for many Asian economies. More recently, the intensifying rhetoric surrounding China’s Belt and Road initiative1 – aimed at boosting investments in infrastructure and beyond – has led observers to neglect the role played by another regional powerhouse: Japan. Although China may be king in terms of trade, it is considerably behind Japan in terms of investment. But fears surrounding China’s hegemonic dominance in Asia Pacific (APAC) may have been overplayed: Japan remains a key player in this sphere, and will continue to be so for the foreseeable future.

Daha Fazlasını Oku
12.03.2018
Kurumsal Yayınlar

Companies in France: fewer business insolvencies, but still just as many “zombies”

The number of corporate insolvencies in France has continued to decline at the beginning of 2018: -8.3% year-on-year to end of January. This good performance takes place against the backdrop of stronger growth in 2017 (to 2%).

While all sectors benefited from buoyant activity and recorded a decline in business insolvencies, the construction sector performed best, contributing to half of the total decrease recorded. Other sectors – such as services for private individuals, automotive, and clothing – continue to benefit from firm household consumption at the start of this year, driven in particular by the fall in the unemployment rate (8.6% in the fourth quarter of 2017, after 9.3% in the third), a low interest rate environment, and high levels of confidence.

All regions have benefited from this improvement, including Île-de-France, which had recorded four consecutive years of rising company insolvencies. While micro-enterprises saw their situation improve, larger companies posted even stronger performances, reducing the cost of insolvencies, both in financial and employment terms.

Daha Fazlasını Oku
11.03.2018
Kurumsal Yayınlar

Poland Payment Survey 2018: Payment delays mounting amid robust economic growth

The second edition of Coface’s survey on payment experiences in Poland was carried out in December 2017. The year saw a peak period of economic recovery, with GDP growth accelerating to 4.6% in 2017 – the highest level of economic expansion since 2011. This has created favourable conditions for businesses. The payment survey investigated businesses’ payment behaviour, which mirrors both the short-term economic situation and the more structural business environment. Businesses in Poland will likely continue to enjoy a favourable macroeconomic environment. Coface forecasts that the Polish economy will stabilise this year, with GDP growth reaching 3.8% – a slower pace than 2017, but still solid and even broader based. According to our survey, 9 of the 12 sectors consulted anticipate that the amount of outstanding receivables will decrease over the following months. 51% companies expect that their profitability is going to rise in the short-term, whereas 39% anticipate its decrease. The automotive, energy, and textile-clothing sectors in particular expect an improvement in sales. Conversely, the pharmaceuticals, construction, and metals sectors forecast lower sales in the coming months.

Daha Fazlasını Oku
01.03.2018
Kurumsal Yayınlar

Mexico Automotive Industry: Headwinds coming from the North

The Mexican automotive industry has experienced strong growth since the signing of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) in 1993. The sector representativeness rose, from 1.5% of GDP and 8.5% of the manufacturing output in 1993, to 3% of GDP and 18% of manufacturing output in 20151. It is currently the world’s seventh-largest vehicle manufacturer and the largest in Latin America (after overtaking Brazil in 2014). However, the industry’s bright performance is not perceived positively by all. Since the beginning of his election campaign in 2016, United States President Donald Trump has continually attacked the NAFTA. He has blamed the agreement for the deep trade defi cit that the US holds with Mexico (USD 71.1 billion in 20172) and for destroying US jobs. The automotive industry is one of his favourite targets, and not by chance: transportation and related equipment represents roughly 13.9% of total US exports to Mexico and 33.7% of total US imports from Mexico3. Overall, it is the sector with the greatest trade imbalance within the United States.

Daha Fazlasını Oku
27.12.2017
Kurumsal Yayınlar

Türkiye: Etkileyici büyüme ancak dış etkenler karşısında artan kırılganlık

Türkiye ekonomisi 2017 yılının ilk üç çeyreğinde önemli bir performans göstererek bir önceki yıla göre yüzde 7,4 büyüme kaydetmiştir. Üçüncü çeyrekte ekonomi bir önceki yıla göre yüzde 11,1 büyümüştür; bu G20 ülkeleri arasındaki en hızlı büyüme performansıdır. Özellikle geçtiğimiz yıl ekonomik faaliyeti etkileyen olumsuzlukları göz önüne aldığımızda, bu artış piyasa beklentilerinin oldukça üzerindedir. Bu yılki büyümede temel olarak devlet desteği ile artan yatırımlar ve ihracat belirleyici rol oynamıştır.

Daha Fazlasını Oku
14.12.2017
Kurumsal Yayınlar

France: will the organic agrofood sector be forced to abandon its principles?

The agrofood industry is facing a number of challenges in Europe1, including the central issue of how to share created value. To meet these challenges and consider ways to guaranteea healthy, safe and sustainable food supply, the French government held a General Assembly on the topic of food from 20 July to 30 November 2017. Expanding the organic sector of agricultural production seems to be one of the best ways to achieve this, as this market is booming both in France and around the world. France is the third-largest market for organics in the world (Eur 5.9 billion in 2015, or 7% of the total market; Coface estimates that it is likely to reach Eur 8 billion in 2017), behind the United States (40 billion in 2015 or more
than 40% of the total market) and Germany (11%), and just ahead of China, Canada and the other major European economies.

Daha Fazlasını Oku
30.11.2017
Kurumsal Yayınlar

Germany’s corporate payment survey: a better year, particularly for exporters

Coface carried out its second payment survey for Germany this year, making it possible to compare results between the two surveys. Generally speaking, many of the foregone tendencies were somewhat confirmed in 2017. In some aspects, however, improvements can be detected in the payment situations of German companies. The German survey showed that, once again, despite the country’s solid economic situation, nearly 78% of companies are affected by delays in payments. Nevertheless, this ratio has declined by more than 6 percentage points within a year. The positive situation of German companies is also reflected in their assessment of a slight reduction in the financial volumes of outstanding receivables over the past year. Payment delays for the companies surveyed remain within manageable temporary limits. Potential liquidity risks from very long overdue receivables are thus comparably low and are less than in 2016. As a consequence of the improved macroeconomic environment worldwide, the payment experience of export-oriented companies is markedly better than last year. This could also be linked to greater caution in the granting of credit periods.

Daha Fazlasını Oku
28.11.2017
Kurumsal Yayınlar

Poland insolvencies Focus: Are restructuring proceedings the remedy?

Business proceedings aimed at insolvencies and restructuring have been on rise in Poland this year. Over the course of the first three quarters of 2017 they increased by 14% compared to the same period last year. Most of the sectors in Poland experienced an increase in the number of proceedings. In contrast, the country’s macroeconomics have been performing well. GDP growth strengthened to 4.0% y/y in the first half of 2017. Economic activity is being driven by household consumption, which remains the main growth engine. Household consumption has benefitted from a further fall in the unemployment rate, which has broken previous record lows. Polish households are also enjoying fair growth in wages and the lowest central bank interest rates in history. Unsurprisingly, within this positive economic environment, consumer confidence indicators are high. Slowly, but gradually, fixed asset investments are becoming more evident and are positively contributing to Polish growth. After last year’s contraction (due to a switch to the new EU budget), investments have started to be fuelled again by infrastructural projects and increasing business capacities. As a result, domestic demand - along with stronger exports supported by strengthening global trade dynamics - is secure enough to keep Poland’s GDP growth at solid levels over the following quarters. This positive economic activity will continue to support companies in Poland, but the first signs of an overheating economy (such as supply constraints and labour shortages) will bring challenges for companies and the pace of expansion. Coface forecasts that GDP growth will reach 3.9% this year, before weakening to 3.5% in 2018. The favourable macroeconomic environment has been supporting Polish businesses. The cross-sector average shows that, during the first half of 2017, companies were able to generate both higher revenues (+9.6%) and profits (+5.4%). Nevertheless, profitability indicators have not been overly impressive. The intense competition present in many sectors is hampering attempts to increase margins, despite growing demand and revenues. The retail sector is an illustration of this trend. Although retail has been benefitting from increased consumer spending, the sector experienced a 59% increase in insolvencies and restructuring procedures during the first three quarters of this year.

Daha Fazlasını Oku
21.11.2017
Kurumsal Yayınlar

The UK automotive sector and Brexit – or, how to slow a rolling industry

The UK automotive industry is entering a dry period. The voices of the main UK industry representatives and their concerns regarding the negative effects of a potential hard Brexit appear to remain unheard, while other difficulties are accumulating against the backdrop of uncertainty. These representatives believe that current negotiations between the UK and the EU are, at this stage, unfavourable to them, despite the Prime Minister recently emphasising the country’s will to remain in the Single Market. The prosperous years of the UK’s automotive industry seem to be a thing of the past. Despite its many advantages, the sector will have to renew itself once again if it is to resist the impact of Brexit. At a time when the automotive sector has to contend with multiple challenges, the prospect of a disorderly exit from the European Union weighs on the capacity of its players to invest and innovate. A weakening of the UK executive adds uncertainty to the future of the sector.

Daha Fazlasını Oku
09.11.2017
Kurumsal Yayınlar

NEW CHINESE AMBITIONS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA

- UNBALANCED TRADE LINKS BETWEEN CHINA AND AFRICA

- UNDER THREAT FROM A POTENTIAL DROP IN CHINESE DEMAND

- GLIMMER OF HOPE: A WIN-WIN COOPERATION?

Daha Fazlasını Oku
Üst
  • Turkish