HABERLER & YAYINLAR

YENİ NE VAR?

30.11.2017
Kurumsal Yayınlar

Tüm Coface Yayınları

28.11.2017
Kurumsal Yayınlar

Poland insolvencies Focus: Are restructuring proceedings the remedy?

Business proceedings aimed at insolvencies and restructuring have been on rise in Poland this year. Over the course of the first three quarters of 2017 they increased by 14% compared to the same period last year. Most of the sectors in Poland experienced an increase in the number of proceedings. In contrast, the country’s macroeconomics have been performing well. GDP growth strengthened to 4.0% y/y in the first half of 2017. Economic activity is being driven by household consumption, which remains the main growth engine. Household consumption has benefitted from a further fall in the unemployment rate, which has broken previous record lows. Polish households are also enjoying fair growth in wages and the lowest central bank interest rates in history. Unsurprisingly, within this positive economic environment, consumer confidence indicators are high. Slowly, but gradually, fixed asset investments are becoming more evident and are positively contributing to Polish growth. After last year’s contraction (due to a switch to the new EU budget), investments have started to be fuelled again by infrastructural projects and increasing business capacities. As a result, domestic demand - along with stronger exports supported by strengthening global trade dynamics - is secure enough to keep Poland’s GDP growth at solid levels over the following quarters. This positive economic activity will continue to support companies in Poland, but the first signs of an overheating economy (such as supply constraints and labour shortages) will bring challenges for companies and the pace of expansion. Coface forecasts that GDP growth will reach 3.9% this year, before weakening to 3.5% in 2018. The favourable macroeconomic environment has been supporting Polish businesses. The cross-sector average shows that, during the first half of 2017, companies were able to generate both higher revenues (+9.6%) and profits (+5.4%). Nevertheless, profitability indicators have not been overly impressive. The intense competition present in many sectors is hampering attempts to increase margins, despite growing demand and revenues. The retail sector is an illustration of this trend. Although retail has been benefitting from increased consumer spending, the sector experienced a 59% increase in insolvencies and restructuring procedures during the first three quarters of this year.

Daha Fazlasını Oku
21.11.2017
Kurumsal Yayınlar

The UK automotive sector and Brexit – or, how to slow a rolling industry

The UK automotive industry is entering a dry period. The voices of the main UK industry representatives and their concerns regarding the negative effects of a potential hard Brexit appear to remain unheard, while other difficulties are accumulating against the backdrop of uncertainty. These representatives believe that current negotiations between the UK and the EU are, at this stage, unfavourable to them, despite the Prime Minister recently emphasising the country’s will to remain in the Single Market. The prosperous years of the UK’s automotive industry seem to be a thing of the past. Despite its many advantages, the sector will have to renew itself once again if it is to resist the impact of Brexit. At a time when the automotive sector has to contend with multiple challenges, the prospect of a disorderly exit from the European Union weighs on the capacity of its players to invest and innovate. A weakening of the UK executive adds uncertainty to the future of the sector.

Daha Fazlasını Oku
09.11.2017
Kurumsal Yayınlar

NEW CHINESE AMBITIONS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA

- UNBALANCED TRADE LINKS BETWEEN CHINA AND AFRICA

- UNDER THREAT FROM A POTENTIAL DROP IN CHINESE DEMAND

- GLIMMER OF HOPE: A WIN-WIN COOPERATION?

Daha Fazlasını Oku
09.11.2017
EKONOMİ YAYINLARI

China-Africa: Will the marriage of convenience last?

Wolf Warrior 2, released in July 2017, became the first non-Hollywood movie to break into the top 100 highest-grossing film of all time at the global box office. The action movie portrays China as Africa’s protector. Just four days after the release of the movie, China opened its first overseas military base on the coast of Djibouti, embodying the message of the movie. China has demonstrated a particular interest in Djibouti, a small country in the Horn of Africa, as a gateway to the continent, especially since the first Forum on China-Africa Cooperation (FOCAC).

As its name suggests, FOCAC embodies and oversees Beijing’s interest in the entire continent. Since the first Forum was held in 2000, the upturn in economic cooperation between the Middle Kingdom and the African continent has transformed China into a key economic partner for many African countries. However, closer bilateral ties between China and most of its African partners remain centred around China’s growing demand for commodities – particularly mineral resources such as oil, metals and precious stones – and has become subject to increasing scrutiny. Nevertheless, almost 20 years after the inception of FOCAC, it has become necessary to reassess the China-Africa relationship. China’s economic rebalancing towards more domestic consumption is underway, and the slowdown in economic activity is apparent already, despite some signs COFACE ECONOMIC PUBLICATIONS ALL OTHER GROUP PANORAMAS ARE AVAILABLE ON www.coface.com/Economic-Studies-and-Country-Risks of strength in 2017. This should translate into weaker Chinese demand for mineral resources and lower commodity prices – starting with those of crude oil – both of which are lingering tendencies that will reshape the China-Africa bilateral relationship. Declining trade between the African continent and the Middle Kingdom, as well as the shrinking outward foreign direct investment (ODI) flows in the past two years, further reinforce this trend.

Daha Fazlasını Oku
09.11.2017
EKONOMİ YAYINLARI

Embargo on Qatar: Manageable for the time being, but not perennially

On June 5, 2017 Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Egypt and Bahrain (known as the quartet) announced they were breaking diplomatic ties with Qatar, due to the country’s relations with Iran and accusations that it supports extremism. The quartet has suspended all air and sea travel links with Qatar, while Saudi Arabia has closed its borders with the country. This means that overland imports of food and other suppliers to Qatar are blocked. Sanctions have had diverse impacts, particularly on trade, capital and human flows. Nevertheless, Qatar, the world’s largest exporter of liquefied natural gas, has been able to soften the effect of the crisis so far, thanks to its reserves of cash and gold. The government has taken immediate and effective measures which, along with rising energy exports, have been able to mitigate the challenges arising from the crisis. Against this backdrop Coface expects the Qatari economy to grow by 3.4% in 2017 and by 3% in 2018 - although this is far below the real annualised growth of 13% recorded between 2005 and 2014.

Impacts of the embargo on the Qatari economy: Under control so far

Growth figures indicate a slowdown in the Qatari economy but this is mainly due to the floundering oil sector and subdued energy prices. Real GDP increased by 0.6% yoy in the second quarter, a slow down from the 2.4% yoy recorded in the first quarter. However, on a quarterly basis, the economy expanded by 0.5% in the second quarter of 2017 – a recovery from the contraction of -1.5% in the first quarter (although figures only cover the first month of the embargo). The lacklustre oil sector was the main reason for the annual slowdown in the economy. The mining and quarrying sector, which accounted for almost half of GDP on constant prices, shrank by 2.7% year on year in the second quarter of 2017, following a contraction of -0.4% year on year during the first three months. The OPEC agreement, which includes production cuts by major oil producers, has negatively affected the sector. In the second quarter of the year, Qatar’s crude oil production fell to 613 thousand barrels per day (tb/d), down from 656 tb/d in 2016 and 663 tb/d in 20151. Non-oil sectors showed a growth of 3.9% year on year in the second quarter of 2017, decelerating from 5.2%. On a quarterly basis, non-oil activity remained flat, indicating that the economy has been affected by the Gulf crisis. Manufacturing output expanded by 1.2% from the previous quarter.

Daha Fazlasını Oku
19.10.2017
EKONOMİ YAYINLARI

Argentina legislative elections: is the continuity of the pro-business direction at stake?

Since Mauricio Macri took office in mid-December 2015, the economy has started to recover. The exchange rate was liberalised during Macri’s first week in office, price controls were removed, import barriers were lifted, discredited national economic statistics were revamped, subsidies were reduced and the holdout saga was finally resolved in April 2016. The last of these measures allowed the country to regain access to the international financial market after a hiatus of 15 years. Coface subsequently upgraded Argentina’s country assessment to B1 in December 2016. The positive trend did however come, as expected, with short term side effects. Inflation picked up to 41 % in the end of the first year of government, reducing household purchasing power and leading the economy into recession (GDP -2.2 % in 2016). Social protests flourished in response.

The recovery could, however, be nipped in the bud by renewed political uncertainties against the backdrop of the legislative elections to be held on October 22 2017. The government is therefore in a rush to show that the economy is rebounding. This has taken longer than the ruling government expected, although activity is finally gaining strength (GDP + 1.6 % in the first half of 2017 on a yearly basis). A takeoff in the rebound will be subject to the outcome of the upcoming midterm elections. Linked to this, investors became more cautious on the country´s medium term political prospects, after former president Cristina Kirchner announced that she would run for the Senate in the province of Buenos Aires. The upcoming elections that will renew one third of Senate and half of the Lower House will be an indication of the potential outcome for the 2019 presidential race. If Kirchner succeeds in gaining a positive outcome, she may try to return to Casa Rosada, thus putting the continuity of the pro-business direction at stake. On the other hand, if the government´s coalition returns a good outcome, this would raise its political capital for passing reforms through Congress.

Daha Fazlasını Oku
02.10.2017
Kurumsal Yayınlar

SECTOR RISK ASSESSMENTS • 3rd quarter 2017

12 MAJOR SECTORS ASSESSED WORLDWIDE

Coface assessments are based on 70 years of Coface expertise

Financial data published by listed companies from 6 geographical regions

5 financial indicators taken into account: turnover, profitability, the net debt ratio, cashflow, and claims observed by our risk managers

Daha Fazlasını Oku
02.10.2017
Kurumsal Yayınlar

COUNTRY RISK ASSESSMENT MAP • 3RD QUARTER 2017

160 COUNTRIES UNDER THE MAGNIFYING GLASS

A UNIQUE METHODOLOGY
• Macroeconomic expertise in assessing country risk
• Comprehension of the business environment
• Microeconomic data collected over 70 years of payment experience

Daha Fazlasını Oku
30.09.2017
EKONOMİ YAYINLARI

Morocco: drawing out of payment periods, a perplexing trend?

Contrary to 2016, which was characterized by a low economic growth of 1.4%, 2017 is marked by higher expectations with growth expected to exceed 4%. Paradoxically, the question of payment periods and delays has never been more current now in this context.

Especially since the implementation of the new Act 49-15 to develop the regulatory framework governing payment periods in Morocco has fuelled debate. The text provides for, among other things, reducing the legal term between the issuance of the invoice and the final payment to 60 days.

For the third consecutive year, Coface is conducting the Moroccan payment behaviour survey, the aim of which is to monitor the evolution of payment periods and delays. A new development, the 2017 edition also questions companies about their payment behaviour expectations for the next 6 months.

Daha Fazlasını Oku
30.09.2017
Kurumsal Yayınlar

Are bond markets the new “spare tyre” for corporates in emerging economies?

If the year 2017 is synonymous with a slight economic upturn in the emerging markets, let’s not forget the previous three years were marked by increased corporate risk. The reasons for this were numerous: declining commodity prices, high corporate indebtedness, production overcapacity, political risk at the highest level, etc. In this tumultuous environment, businesses have also had to deal with tighter credit conditions from banking institutions.

Restrictive credit conditions in times of crisis is not unique to the emerging world, the subprime crisis being another example. In these circumstances, the bond markets can provide an alternative to bank financing, providing businesses with some breathing space. This is according to Alan Greenspan, the former Chairman of the US Federal Reserve, who went as far as describing the bond markets as a “spare tyre” in 2000.

Daha Fazlasını Oku
27.09.2017
EKONOMİ YAYINLARI

Global growth recovery: a real or a false start?

For once, the summer proved to be particularly quiet. No major events disrupted the path taken by the world economy. While the summers of 2015 and 2016 were marked by the stock market crash in China and then by Brexit, the summer of 2017 was, instead, characterised by historically low volatility on financial markets at the end of July, while numerous stock market indices like the S&P 500 and the MSCI Emerging Markets reached record highs.

Is this situation a source of concern? Does it seem like a potential excess of confidence, and can we fear a possible bursting of a bubble? Could corporate profitability suffer from financial markets turmoil?

On the economic front in appearance, activity is bouncing back, leading us to upgrade 14 sectors (only 2 downgrades). Europe is still on an upward trajectory (upgrade of Hungary, Finland, and Cyprus’ assessments), and capital flows are coming back in large emerging economies, even though they will remain vulnerable to the Fed monetary policy and to political risk. There are more and more signs of recovery in Brazil as well as in Russia. However, Chinese resilience is still masking major vulnerabilities, including a high credit risk, while India has also surprised, with disappointing growth for once in the second quarter. At last, good news in Africa: despite modest growth performances, a busy electoral calendar this summer turned out to be relatively peaceful.

Daha Fazlasını Oku
14.09.2017
EKONOMİ YAYINLARI

Time to address the infrastructure gap in Latin America

During the commodity super-cycle that lasted over a decade, until around 2014, Latin American economies showed robust performance.

Growth was possible even in the context of generally weak infrastructure. Higher revenues from the exports of primary goods led to the expansion of public and private domestic consumption. Activity throughout these years was driven by the flourish of an emerging middle class and by populist governments that disregarded the cyclical feature of commodities. The setback in international prices, which became more apparent as from mid-2014, had strong repercussions on growth and exposed vulnerabilities in the region. The ensuing weaker terms of trade caused the depreciation of Latin America’s floating currencies against the USD. This depreciation was not enough to boost the competitiveness of manufacturing goods and instead led to the deterioration of trade balances. This, in turn, prompted large twin deficits in the region’s current and public accounts. Following two years of negative growth, regional activity is expected to emerge from recession in 2017. Nevertheless, Coface forecasts a somewhat lackluster performance, of just 1.2%.

Daha Fazlasını Oku
14.09.2017
EKONOMİ YAYINLARI

Central and Eastern Europe: Less business insolvencies despite temporary headwinds in the construction sector

Despite some slowdown last year, average GDP growth remained at a solid level of 2.9% in Central and Eastern Europe. Economies have been benefi ting from the favourable situation on the labour market, with contracting unemployment rates and rising wages. The improving macroeconomic environment has had positive effects on business. Company insolvencies dropped by 14% in 2015 and a further 6% in 2016. Over the course of last year, 6 entities per 1,000 became insolvent. The regional breakdown reveals a wide variety of dynamics, ranging from a fall of 35.6% in proceedings in Bulgaria, through to a minor increase of 2.6% in Poland and a surge of 56.9% in Hungary. Regionwide however, the downturn in construction activities led to companies within this sector being widely represented in insolvency statistics. Construction consequently took fi rst place in the ranking of fl op sectors in the CEE region.

Coface forecasts that company insolvencies in the CEE region will decrease by 3.9% in 2017 and by 2.3% in 2018. The acceleration in GDP growth and the rebound in investment activity bring further positive signals for businesses. A new fl ow of infrastructural projects, stable contributions from household consumption and the exploration of foreign markets will all be economic supporters. Nevertheless, businesses could experience some challenges, subject to the whims of the global economy and political uncertainties. The latter include the eventual negative consequences of Brexit and uncertainties in Western Europe, with unclear election results in Italy. In addition, there have been local political issues, as seen in the Czech Republic, Poland and Romania. The rebound in investments should be particularly benefi cial for sectors such as construction, transport and the manufacturing of machinery, construction equipment and construction materials. Nevertheless, labour shortages will remain an obstacle for many expanding businesses.

Daha Fazlasını Oku
31.08.2017
Kurumsal Yayınlar

Automotive and transport is the leading sector in the region CEE

The Top 500 companies generated EUR 580 billion in 2016 – a minor decrease of 0.6% – and experienced a greater downturn in net profit by -3.1% to EUR 26.3 billion. In contrast to the decrease in turnover and net profit, employment rates boomed. The CEE Top 500 companies employed 4.5% of the total labour force in the region, strengthening their workforce significantly by +3.9% to 2.2 million people. This development was reflected in the declining unemployment rates in the region. In ten countries the unemployment rates decreased by even more than 10%, most notably Hungary with -25.0% to 5.1% and the Czech Republic with -21.6% to 4.0%. In most of the CEE countries unemployment rates are now even lower than in Western European countries. The only country which registered higher unemployment figures than the year before is Estonia with +9.7% to 6.8%.

Daha Fazlasını Oku
19.07.2017
EKONOMİ YAYINLARI

Tough funding conditions for GCC corporates: the hidden effect of lower oil prices

Tighter liquidity conditions in the GCC region since mid-2014…

Oil prices declined by around 75% between mid-2014 and January 2016, with Brent crude prices falling as low as $28 a barrel. Since then, prices have risen back up by nearly 85%, to around $50 a barrel. Nevertheless, persistently low prices are continuing to weigh on liquidity conditions across Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries. Firstly, these countries are still heavily dependent on oil, despite efforts made towards greater economic diversification. Between 2011 and 2014, hydrocarbon revenues accounted for 70% of exports and over 80% of total fiscal revenues, on average1. Secondly, low energy prices have been dragging down governments’ fiscal revenues, which has in turn weighed on the results of corporates and the liquidity of the banking sector. As a result, both financial and business conditions have deteriorated since the beginning of the decline in oil prices. Real GDP growth across the region fell to 1.9% in 2016, down from an average of 4.9% between 2010 and 20152. Growth is expected to edge up marginally, to 2.1% in 2017, supported by the recovery in oil prices.

The slowdown in fiscal revenues and economic growth
has pushed governments in the GCC region to adopt austerity measures such as raising administrative fees, reducing (or even eliminating) some subsidies, cancelling low-priority projects and trying to contain salaries. Governments are continuing to examine measures to raise additional budgets through other taxes and fees (such as VAT, taxes on business profits and income tax). The region’s budgets for 2017 showed reductions in public spending which will lead to the postponement of some important projects. This will make cash flow management more difficult for companies and reduce the opportunities for banks to finance mega-projects (one of their main sources of profitability).

Daha Fazlasını Oku
12.07.2017
Kurumsal Yayınlar

Asia Corporate Payment Survey 2016: Tail risks are on the rise

Coface conducts an annual survey to examine corporate payment trends and experiences in eight selected economies in the Asia Pacific (APAC) region. Our corporate payment survey for 2016 showed that non-payment risks escalated on the back of financial stress and a looser approach to credit controls.

Across the eight APAC economies in our survey, the number of respondents offering sales on credit show a slight decrease compared to 2015. Those that did significantly ramped up their credit terms from 55 to 59 days. Only half of the respondent companies checked and monitored buyer credit worthiness in 2016, while one third monitored buyer track records. In addition, there was a notable decline in respondents requesting secured forms of payment. This is a reflection of a looser approach to credit risks.

Daha Fazlasını Oku
05.07.2017
EKONOMİ YAYINLARI

A gust of optimism is blowing over the world economy

At the end of the first quarter of 2017, we were wondering whether the timid global economic recovery was a flash in the pan. Three months later, the ongoing recovery seems to be a lasting one, given the economic rally in a considerable number of industrial sectorsand in Europe, even if a few rain clouds on the horizon, in the United States and in China, darken the picture.

In this barometer, we observe that in the United States, the slowdown in consumption, the still unclear outlines of the fiscal stimulus and the investment plan announced by the White House,as well as the rise in interest rates are elementsto be monitored. In the euro area, good newsare accumulating: the easing in credit conditionsfinally boosts business investment; growthexceeds expectations; business confidence hasbeen at its highest for six years; consumer sentimentis on the rise. With the notable exception ofthe United Kingdom, we estimate that businessinsolvencies will decline in Europe and we thusupgrade Spain to A2 from A3 and Portugal toA3 from A4.

Daha Fazlasını Oku
09.06.2017
EKONOMİ YAYINLARI

In the face of Brexit, are British businesses left to sink or swim?

One year after the “yes” vote for Brexit, seen as traumatic, the time has come for the United Kingdom to accelerate the implementation of its exit from the European Union (EU). Prime Minister Theresa May wants to have free rein by calling early legislative elections on 8 June, where her victory is expected.

But have British businesses suffered from this decision over the past year? It is clear that the country’s activity and businesses have been globally spared, even though investment has shown signs of decline. The only significant shock has been the sharp depreciation of the pound sterling’s real effective exchange rate in the second half of 2016, which had little positive effect on the activity of exporting businesses but weighed on import costs.

Daha Fazlasını Oku
30.05.2017
EKONOMİ YAYINLARI

Russia – from recession to recovery, but to what extent and how fast?

Between 1999 and 2008, Russia’s GDP grew by an average of almost 7% per year. In 2009, the fall in oil prices led to a severe recession (-7.8%). Subsequently, the effect of factors that had supported growth ceased. The further fall in oil prices in the mid-2010s, coupled with an unfavourable international context (declining demand in Europe, sanctions, etc.), led to a contraction in activity for two consecutive years (-2.8% in 2015 and -0.2% in 2016). Between 2009 and 2016, the average annual growth rate was close to zero and the growth forecasts for 2017, again positive, remain very low (1% according to Coface forecasts).

However, in their medium-term development plan1, the Russian authorities are aiming for a minimum annual growth of 5%. The need for a change in growth model, dictated by the changing international environment (a sustained lower level of oil prices) seems to be well accepted by the country’s authorities. It is also urgent for Russia to regain a sufficient pace of growth in activity to halt the deterioration in the standard of living of its population, whose proportion of living below the poverty line exceeded 13% in 2015, compared to less than 11% in 2012.

Daha Fazlasını Oku
18.05.2017
EKONOMİ YAYINLARI

UAE payments survey : slight payment delays expected, due to slower growth

At a time when businesses are facing a decline in demand and liquidity issues, a sharper look into payment behaviour is a must. Through the initiative of Coface, a world leader in trade credit management and risk information services, a credit pinion survey across the UAE was rolled out in order to map out major shifts and prevailing trends in company payments. The method was strategic and the objective was fundamental: to study how businesses make and receive payments, generating a wealth of economic data and market insights that can support stakeholders in making better informed decisions. The diversified economy of the UAE has weath-ered the volatility of a difficult year, with experts reporting signs of strong recovery. Today, at a time when businesses are getting back on track, revisiting credit policies and realigning strategies, a knowledge of key payment trends comes in handy. Coface ran for the first time ever its Credit Opinion Survey. This is a tool dedicated to understand payment behaviors of the companies. Coface has launched this survey for several years in several countries including China, Morocco, China and Germany. The survey in the United Arab Emirates was the first to be launched in this region.

Daha Fazlasını Oku
Üst
  • Turkish