HABERLER & YAYINLAR

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06.11.2019
Kurumsal Yayınlar
Global outlook for the agri-food sector within a protectionist environment

The agri-food sector (alongside the ICT sector), has been at the heart of the global trade war, aggravated by the fact that China’s retaliation measures have often targeted US soybean imports. As a consequence, the US agri-food sector, notably American soybean exporters are negatively impacted by this situation. Coface’s sector risk assessment for the agrifood sector in the United States in on high risk. China is a world-leading importer of soybeans and soybean is a key commodity in the global agri-food sector, as it is widely used both as food for livestock (including pigs) and for human consumption.

A significant knock-on effect of the protectionist environment – and particularly the trade war between the US and China – on the global agri-food sector has been on commodities prices. The latter have recorded high volatility and the dynamic of the ones analysed in this study (corn, soybean, and wheat) have experienced downward trends. Coface has developed a statistical model, using the LASSO technique (Least Absolute Selection Shrinkage Operator - Insert 2) which aims at forecasting commodities prices, notably soybean ones. According to Coface’s model, soybean prices are expected to decrease by 9% in 2019 compared to the previous year.

This outcome is consistent with the analysis that the downward trend of soybean prices is explained by trade tensions and weaker demand from China, notably due to the severe African Swine Fever (ASF) epidemic that led Chinese pork producers to sizeably slaughter their livestock to prevent ASF from spreading. This situation has had an impact on global pork production as Chinese producers used to represent nearly 50% of it. Hence, Chinese consumers will have to turn to other animal protein such as poultry and beef; and as a result, large global exporters of the latter such as Argentina and Brazil are likely to benefit from it.

Another consequence of the trade tensions between the US and China on the global agri-food sector is the transformation of “export routes” for certain commodities, particularly soybean (it has also impacted US production of corn, sorghum and pork). Although some of the major soybean producers and exporters worldwide such as Brazil and Argentina could somewhat benefit from the situation in the medium term, the risks for the agri-food sector as a whole remain on the upside.

Tüm Coface Yayınları

05.11.2019
Kurumsal Yayınlar

Global economy in 2020: general slowdown despite the action of central banks

As usual, many political events marked the summer: another episode of the Argentine exchange rate crisis, an unexpected change of government in Italy, major demonstrations in Hong Kong and Russia, an ever more challenging continuation of the “Brexit” process and an attack on oil installations in Saudi Arabia.

The multiplication of areas of political uncer tainty, combined with the risks mentioned at length in the first semester and still relevant today (decline of world trade in volume, high volatility in oil prices or even decline in automobile sales in Europe and China) continued to affect corporate morale. Now, in addition to Europeans and Asians firms, American companies are also openly concerned about President D. Trump’s protectionist rhetoric. Should this pessimism, expressed by manufacturing companies, be seen as a temporary phenomenon without the risk of contagion to service activities, or on the contrary as a sign of a deep recession as in 2009? An intermediate scenario, similar to the one observed in 2001-2002 following the bursting of the “Internet bubble” now seems most likely: a gradual and partial transmission of the industrial recession to services and a notable slowdown of growth in 2020 in the main advanced economies. The only good news is that the central banks of the United States, the Eurozone and many emerging countries have taken measure of the situation by announcing monetary easing measures. In this context, there were two changes in country evaluations this quarter. They concern Hong Kong (downgraded from A2 to A3) and Mauritania (upgraded from D to C). As for the business sectors, after the series of downgrades concerning the automotive sector in June, the changes are less numerous this quarter but still indicate an increase in risks (13 downgrades but no upgrades). The automotive sector is still concerned (downgraded in three new countries) as well as the sectors that depend on it (chemicals in Germany for example). Corporate credit risks are also on the rise in the paper sector in North America. Finally, new victims of the rise of trade protectionism are to be reported (ICT sector in Korea notably).

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18.10.2019
Kurumsal Yayınlar

SECTOR RISK ASSESSMENT MAP - OCTOBER 2019

13 major sectors assessed worldwide. Coface assessments are based on 70 years of Coface expertise and on the financial data published by listed companies from 6 geographical sectors. 5 financial indicators are taken into account: turnover, profitability, the net debt ratio, cashflow, and claims observed by our risk managers.

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18.10.2019
Kurumsal Yayınlar

COUNTRY RISK ASSESSMENT MAP - OCTOBER 2019

New edition of the country risk map. Consult, download and print the map of the 161 countries assessed by Coface.

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04.10.2019
Kurumsal Yayınlar

The “Made in Russia” strategy:a limited instrument for economicdiversification

Thanks to the efforts of the authorities, the diversification of the Russian economy is progressing, particularly
in certain sectors such as information technology, pharmaceuticals, the automotive industry and the agrifood
sector. In the latter case, the process was encouraged by Russian counter-sanctions adopted as a
response to Western sanctions. Economic diversification is regarded as a way to simultaneously reduce
the country’s dependence on imports and on hydrocarbons. However, the diversification faces structural
barriers. It is subject to the availability of inputs, the modernization of the productive apparatus and the
improvement of the business environment. The requirement to substitute local production for imports and/
or increase local content is limited by the availability and quality of local components. Additionally, the
development and modernization of local production chains very often require the import of machinery and
technology from Western countries. The current and, potentially future sanctions and counter-sanctions,
the business environment (rated B by Coface, 5th notch on a scale of 8), the increasing political risk and the
lack of available workforce weigh on domestic and foreign investments. In addition, raw materials (including
hydrocarbons) still play an important role in the economy in spite of a weaker link between oil prices and
economic growth. This is a result of the new fiscal rule aimed at disconnecting the economy from fluctuations
in the oil environment and the growing influence of the political context on capital flows at the expense of
crude oil prices.

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26.09.2019
Kurumsal Yayınlar

Netherlands:What is the secret of Dutch trade?

The Netherlands are an old trade nation. During the Dutch Golden Age in the 17th century, they emerged as awell-known global maritime and economic power, and even had a monopoly on European trade with Japan.Today, although some of this glory has faded, the Dutch economy is still a big player in global trade. In 2018,the Netherlands were the sixth-largest goods exporter in the world. In the service-exports category, theDutch placed eighth in 20151. Considering exports relative to GDP, the Netherlands took third place in 2015(right behind Ireland and Switzerland). However, times have changed. The favourable trade environmenthas vanished and global trade has lost its momentum. Coface expects world trade to decrease by 0.8% involume across 2019 as a whole (with a minus of 0.6% quarter-on-quarter in Q3 and a small plus of 0.3% in Q4).

Daha Fazlasını Oku
13.09.2019
Kurumsal Yayınlar

CEE insolvencies: so far, so gooddespite an increasingly challengingglobal economic environment

As seen often in insolvency trends, the economicsituation is experienced in statistics of companiesinsolvencies with a delay. In the Central and EasternEurope ( CEE) region, businesses were able to benefitfrom solid demand experienced both domesticallyand externally in recent years. A period of favourablemacroeconomic environment has brought effectson solvency of companies in the CEE region. GDPweightedaverage insolvencies dropped by 4.2% in2018, contrary to an increase of proceedings recordeda year prior. 2018 saw a decrease in insolvencyproceedings in ten countries, whereas they grew onlyin four countries. The regional breakdown indicatesa wide variety of dynamics, ranging from a 35%decrease in insolvencies in Ukraine to a 42% surge ofin Croatia.

Daha Fazlasını Oku
02.08.2019
EKONOMİ YAYINLARI

GCC: tight financial conditions for businesses feed alternative sources of financing

Despite improving economic performances across the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), monetary and financial conditions remain tighter than they were before 2015. Access to financing remains one of the key issues for companies, particularly for small- and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). Loan growth in the region has recovered somewhat thanks to higher oil prices, but it remains below its historical average. The US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) policy normalisation is another cause: since the Fed announced its policy normalisation in 2013, central banks across the GCC have increased their policy rates in line with the Fed’s exit strategy. These tight bank credit conditions have forced companies to look for alternative financing sources in recent years, e.g. bond and sukuk issuances, trade finance, and initial public offerings. But despite their fast growth, these different sources of financing account for no more than around 5% of usual bank credit. GCC companies are now looking forward to the expected expansionary monetary policy in the United States, which should help them.

Daha Fazlasını Oku
10.07.2019
EKONOMİ YAYINLARI

Asia-Pacific Corporate PaymentSurvey 2019: deteriorating paymenttrends amid trade war woes

Trade wars , volatile global capital flows, slowing growth in the United States (U.S.) and Europe, Brexit — businesses in the Asia-Pacific (APAC) region had to navigate a number of political, economic, and financial pitfalls last year. To better understand the impact that such events have on companies, Coface conducts annual corporate payment surveys across the world. The 2019 Asia-Pacific Corporate Payment Survey covers nine economies in the APAC region. For the survey, data was collected from over3,000 companies during the fourth quarter of 2018.

Daha Fazlasını Oku
10.07.2019
Kurumsal Yayınlar

SECTOR RISK ASSESSMENTS 2ND QUARTER 2019

13 major sectors assessed worldwide. Coface assessments are based on 70 years of Coface expertise and on the financial data published by listed companies from 6 geographical sectors. 5 financial indicators are taken into account: turnover, profitability, the net debt ratio, cashflow, and claims observed by our risk managers.

Daha Fazlasını Oku
04.07.2019
EKONOMİ YAYINLARI

Political risks in Africa: the temperature is rising

Africa has seen a bevy of political events in recent months. After the deterioration of the security situation in the Sahel, as well as the forced departures of historical leaders from Algeria and Sudan via the streets, where will the political risks manifest in the second half of the year? Using its quantitative political risk model(Insert 1), created in March 20171, Coface intends to identify – beyond the pace dictated by current events – recent political risk trends and thus the countries to be monitored.

Daha Fazlasını Oku
04.07.2019
EKONOMİ YAYINLARI

Trade tensions return to theforefront of the global economy

The first part of 2019 was marked by the decline in world trade, which will decrease in volume over the year as a whole according to our forecasts (-0.7%), despite as light recovery expected in the second half of 2019.

Daha Fazlasını Oku
03.07.2019
Kurumsal Yayınlar

COUNTRY RISK ASSESSMENT MAP - 2ND QUARTER 2019

161 COUNTRIES UNDER THE MAGNIFYING GLASS
A UNIQUE METHODOLOGY
• Macroeconomic expertise in assessing country risk
• Comprehension of the business environment
• Microeconomic data collected over 70 years
of payment experience

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21.06.2019
EKONOMİ YAYINLARI

An unsure future for natural gas: How risks could derail the current boom

Evidence suggests that the natural gas market boom is likely to continue in the short-to-medium term. Natural gas is a convenient way to produce energy, due to its abundant supply, versatility, and the fact that it pollutes less than other fossil fuels. Moreover, its derivatives are used as raw inputs in a wide range of industries, notably in petrochemicals. However, this commodity market is not free of challenges. The energy industry is quickly evolving: as renewable energy sources increase in popularity compared to fossil fuels, their costs are plummeting. New forms of electricity conservation have recently become the focal point of widespread international attention, resulting in heavy investment and research. Furthermore, natural gas is increasingly losing its reputation as a cleaner energy source in the battle against climate change, as it pollutes more than renewable alternatives.

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20.06.2019
EKONOMİ YAYINLARI

Morocco Payment Survey 2019 Payment terms to remain long

During the first quarter of 2019, Coface conducted its fourth survey on businesses’ payment experience in Morocco. This survey aims to monitor the evolution of payment terms and delays. The payment behaviour reflects the evolution of both the economic situation and of the business environment.

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30.05.2019
EKONOMİ YAYINLARI

Corporate insolvencies in France:micro-entreprises in the wave’s trough

During the first four months of 2019, the rate of corporate insolvencies in France increased by +0.8%. This rate was particularly high during January and February, mainly due to the repercussions of the "gilets jaunes" (yellow vests) movement; however, the increasing rate of insolvencies declined in March and April. Nonetheless, Coface anticipates that, despite resilient economic growth, insolvencies will increase by +1.7% over the whole of 2019.

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24.05.2019
EKONOMİ YAYINLARI

From copycat to early bird:Taking stock of China’s 5G ambitions

China has rapidly become a big player in 5G technology1, thanks to the government’s strategy and its support of high investment in Research and Development (R&D). This new technology is part of the Made in China 2025 initiative, through which the Chinese government targets self-sufficiency in high-end industries. China coordinated its approach to 5G and some successes are already visible. For example, 40% of global patents for current 5G network standards are from Chinese firms. Moreover, Chinese companies are set to benefit from 5G. Huawei is the global leader in network infrastructures; it currently holds 29% of the market.

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22.05.2019
Kurumsal Yayınlar

Luxury market performance in global economic downturns: is this time different?

The luxury market is unique, mainly due to the fact that its products are consumed for social distinction. This has helped companies in the segment to outperform other sector-segments over the past years.

Nevertheless, the luxury market is facing important challenges, notably regarding counterfeit products, a risk for companies, and e-commerce, which is disrupting how business is conducted. In addition, the market is not immune to challenging economic conditions.

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18.04.2019
EKONOMİ YAYINLARI

Central Asia: is the ménage à trois with China and Russia sustainable?

Central Asia is both a partner and a trade gateway for China and Europe. It is located on two branches of the New Silk Road. Despite criticism, China is the most involved in the development of Central Asian corridors. This deployment is not obvious given the competition from other routes and poor regional cooperation. While Russian influence remains significant through expatriate remittances, its military bases, and culture, it is being supplanted by China in economic matters.

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18.04.2019
Kurumsal Yayınlar

COUNTRY RISK ASSESSMENT MAP - 1ST QUARTER 2019

161 COUNTRIES UNDER THE MAGNIFYING GLASS
A UNIQUE METHODOLOGY
• Macroeconomic expertise in assessing country risk
• Comprehension of the business environment
• Microeconomic data collected over 70 years
of payment experience

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18.04.2019
EKONOMİ YAYINLARI

The great industrial rotation continues - Country and Sector risks Baromater

Signs of the global economic slowdown continued to accumulate at the beginning of 2019: companies are much less confident than a year ago, and global trade is showing signs of fatigue.

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