HABERLER & YAYINLAR

YENİ NE VAR?

19.10.2017
EKONOMİ YAYINLARI
Argentina legislative elections: is the continuity of the pro-business direction at stake?

Since Mauricio Macri took office in mid-December 2015, the economy has started to recover. The exchange rate was liberalised during Macri’s first week in office, price controls were removed, import barriers were lifted, discredited national economic statistics were revamped, subsidies were reduced and the holdout saga was finally resolved in April 2016. The last of these measures allowed the country to regain access to the international financial market after a hiatus of 15 years. Coface subsequently upgraded Argentina’s country assessment to B1 in December 2016. The positive trend did however come, as expected, with short term side effects. Inflation picked up to 41 % in the end of the first year of government, reducing household purchasing power and leading the economy into recession (GDP -2.2 % in 2016). Social protests flourished in response.

The recovery could, however, be nipped in the bud by renewed political uncertainties against the backdrop of the legislative elections to be held on October 22 2017. The government is therefore in a rush to show that the economy is rebounding. This has taken longer than the ruling government expected, although activity is finally gaining strength (GDP + 1.6 % in the first half of 2017 on a yearly basis). A takeoff in the rebound will be subject to the outcome of the upcoming midterm elections. Linked to this, investors became more cautious on the country´s medium term political prospects, after former president Cristina Kirchner announced that she would run for the Senate in the province of Buenos Aires. The upcoming elections that will renew one third of Senate and half of the Lower House will be an indication of the potential outcome for the 2019 presidential race. If Kirchner succeeds in gaining a positive outcome, she may try to return to Casa Rosada, thus putting the continuity of the pro-business direction at stake. On the other hand, if the government´s coalition returns a good outcome, this would raise its political capital for passing reforms through Congress.

Tüm Coface Yayınları

02.10.2017
Kurumsal Yayınlar

SECTOR RISK ASSESSMENTS • 3rd quarter 2017

12 MAJOR SECTORS ASSESSED WORLDWIDE

Coface assessments are based on 70 years of Coface expertise

Financial data published by listed companies from 6 geographical regions

5 financial indicators taken into account: turnover, profitability, the net debt ratio, cashflow, and claims observed by our risk managers

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02.10.2017
Kurumsal Yayınlar

COUNTRY RISK ASSESSMENT MAP • 3RD QUARTER 2017

160 COUNTRIES UNDER THE MAGNIFYING GLASS

A UNIQUE METHODOLOGY
• Macroeconomic expertise in assessing country risk
• Comprehension of the business environment
• Microeconomic data collected over 70 years of payment experience

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30.09.2017
EKONOMİ YAYINLARI

Morocco: drawing out of payment periods, a perplexing trend?

Contrary to 2016, which was characterized by a low economic growth of 1.4%, 2017 is marked by higher expectations with growth expected to exceed 4%. Paradoxically, the question of payment periods and delays has never been more current now in this context.

Especially since the implementation of the new Act 49-15 to develop the regulatory framework governing payment periods in Morocco has fuelled debate. The text provides for, among other things, reducing the legal term between the issuance of the invoice and the final payment to 60 days.

For the third consecutive year, Coface is conducting the Moroccan payment behaviour survey, the aim of which is to monitor the evolution of payment periods and delays. A new development, the 2017 edition also questions companies about their payment behaviour expectations for the next 6 months.

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30.09.2017
Kurumsal Yayınlar

Are bond markets the new “spare tyre” for corporates in emerging economies?

If the year 2017 is synonymous with a slight economic upturn in the emerging markets, let’s not forget the previous three years were marked by increased corporate risk. The reasons for this were numerous: declining commodity prices, high corporate indebtedness, production overcapacity, political risk at the highest level, etc. In this tumultuous environment, businesses have also had to deal with tighter credit conditions from banking institutions.

Restrictive credit conditions in times of crisis is not unique to the emerging world, the subprime crisis being another example. In these circumstances, the bond markets can provide an alternative to bank financing, providing businesses with some breathing space. This is according to Alan Greenspan, the former Chairman of the US Federal Reserve, who went as far as describing the bond markets as a “spare tyre” in 2000.

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27.09.2017
EKONOMİ YAYINLARI

Global growth recovery: a real or a false start?

For once, the summer proved to be particularly quiet. No major events disrupted the path taken by the world economy. While the summers of 2015 and 2016 were marked by the stock market crash in China and then by Brexit, the summer of 2017 was, instead, characterised by historically low volatility on financial markets at the end of July, while numerous stock market indices like the S&P 500 and the MSCI Emerging Markets reached record highs.

Is this situation a source of concern? Does it seem like a potential excess of confidence, and can we fear a possible bursting of a bubble? Could corporate profitability suffer from financial markets turmoil?

On the economic front in appearance, activity is bouncing back, leading us to upgrade 14 sectors (only 2 downgrades). Europe is still on an upward trajectory (upgrade of Hungary, Finland, and Cyprus’ assessments), and capital flows are coming back in large emerging economies, even though they will remain vulnerable to the Fed monetary policy and to political risk. There are more and more signs of recovery in Brazil as well as in Russia. However, Chinese resilience is still masking major vulnerabilities, including a high credit risk, while India has also surprised, with disappointing growth for once in the second quarter. At last, good news in Africa: despite modest growth performances, a busy electoral calendar this summer turned out to be relatively peaceful.

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14.09.2017
EKONOMİ YAYINLARI

Time to address the infrastructure gap in Latin America

During the commodity super-cycle that lasted over a decade, until around 2014, Latin American economies showed robust performance.

Growth was possible even in the context of generally weak infrastructure. Higher revenues from the exports of primary goods led to the expansion of public and private domestic consumption. Activity throughout these years was driven by the flourish of an emerging middle class and by populist governments that disregarded the cyclical feature of commodities. The setback in international prices, which became more apparent as from mid-2014, had strong repercussions on growth and exposed vulnerabilities in the region. The ensuing weaker terms of trade caused the depreciation of Latin America’s floating currencies against the USD. This depreciation was not enough to boost the competitiveness of manufacturing goods and instead led to the deterioration of trade balances. This, in turn, prompted large twin deficits in the region’s current and public accounts. Following two years of negative growth, regional activity is expected to emerge from recession in 2017. Nevertheless, Coface forecasts a somewhat lackluster performance, of just 1.2%.

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14.09.2017
EKONOMİ YAYINLARI

Central and Eastern Europe: Less business insolvencies despite temporary headwinds in the construction sector

Despite some slowdown last year, average GDP growth remained at a solid level of 2.9% in Central and Eastern Europe. Economies have been benefi ting from the favourable situation on the labour market, with contracting unemployment rates and rising wages. The improving macroeconomic environment has had positive effects on business. Company insolvencies dropped by 14% in 2015 and a further 6% in 2016. Over the course of last year, 6 entities per 1,000 became insolvent. The regional breakdown reveals a wide variety of dynamics, ranging from a fall of 35.6% in proceedings in Bulgaria, through to a minor increase of 2.6% in Poland and a surge of 56.9% in Hungary. Regionwide however, the downturn in construction activities led to companies within this sector being widely represented in insolvency statistics. Construction consequently took fi rst place in the ranking of fl op sectors in the CEE region.

Coface forecasts that company insolvencies in the CEE region will decrease by 3.9% in 2017 and by 2.3% in 2018. The acceleration in GDP growth and the rebound in investment activity bring further positive signals for businesses. A new fl ow of infrastructural projects, stable contributions from household consumption and the exploration of foreign markets will all be economic supporters. Nevertheless, businesses could experience some challenges, subject to the whims of the global economy and political uncertainties. The latter include the eventual negative consequences of Brexit and uncertainties in Western Europe, with unclear election results in Italy. In addition, there have been local political issues, as seen in the Czech Republic, Poland and Romania. The rebound in investments should be particularly benefi cial for sectors such as construction, transport and the manufacturing of machinery, construction equipment and construction materials. Nevertheless, labour shortages will remain an obstacle for many expanding businesses.

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31.08.2017
Kurumsal Yayınlar

Automotive and transport is the leading sector in the region CEE

The Top 500 companies generated EUR 580 billion in 2016 – a minor decrease of 0.6% – and experienced a greater downturn in net profit by -3.1% to EUR 26.3 billion. In contrast to the decrease in turnover and net profit, employment rates boomed. The CEE Top 500 companies employed 4.5% of the total labour force in the region, strengthening their workforce significantly by +3.9% to 2.2 million people. This development was reflected in the declining unemployment rates in the region. In ten countries the unemployment rates decreased by even more than 10%, most notably Hungary with -25.0% to 5.1% and the Czech Republic with -21.6% to 4.0%. In most of the CEE countries unemployment rates are now even lower than in Western European countries. The only country which registered higher unemployment figures than the year before is Estonia with +9.7% to 6.8%.

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19.07.2017
EKONOMİ YAYINLARI

Tough funding conditions for GCC corporates: the hidden effect of lower oil prices

Tighter liquidity conditions in the GCC region since mid-2014…

Oil prices declined by around 75% between mid-2014 and January 2016, with Brent crude prices falling as low as $28 a barrel. Since then, prices have risen back up by nearly 85%, to around $50 a barrel. Nevertheless, persistently low prices are continuing to weigh on liquidity conditions across Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries. Firstly, these countries are still heavily dependent on oil, despite efforts made towards greater economic diversification. Between 2011 and 2014, hydrocarbon revenues accounted for 70% of exports and over 80% of total fiscal revenues, on average1. Secondly, low energy prices have been dragging down governments’ fiscal revenues, which has in turn weighed on the results of corporates and the liquidity of the banking sector. As a result, both financial and business conditions have deteriorated since the beginning of the decline in oil prices. Real GDP growth across the region fell to 1.9% in 2016, down from an average of 4.9% between 2010 and 20152. Growth is expected to edge up marginally, to 2.1% in 2017, supported by the recovery in oil prices.

The slowdown in fiscal revenues and economic growth
has pushed governments in the GCC region to adopt austerity measures such as raising administrative fees, reducing (or even eliminating) some subsidies, cancelling low-priority projects and trying to contain salaries. Governments are continuing to examine measures to raise additional budgets through other taxes and fees (such as VAT, taxes on business profits and income tax). The region’s budgets for 2017 showed reductions in public spending which will lead to the postponement of some important projects. This will make cash flow management more difficult for companies and reduce the opportunities for banks to finance mega-projects (one of their main sources of profitability).

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12.07.2017
Kurumsal Yayınlar

Asia Corporate Payment Survey 2016: Tail risks are on the rise

Coface conducts an annual survey to examine corporate payment trends and experiences in eight selected economies in the Asia Pacific (APAC) region. Our corporate payment survey for 2016 showed that non-payment risks escalated on the back of financial stress and a looser approach to credit controls.

Across the eight APAC economies in our survey, the number of respondents offering sales on credit show a slight decrease compared to 2015. Those that did significantly ramped up their credit terms from 55 to 59 days. Only half of the respondent companies checked and monitored buyer credit worthiness in 2016, while one third monitored buyer track records. In addition, there was a notable decline in respondents requesting secured forms of payment. This is a reflection of a looser approach to credit risks.

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05.07.2017
EKONOMİ YAYINLARI

A gust of optimism is blowing over the world economy

At the end of the first quarter of 2017, we were wondering whether the timid global economic recovery was a flash in the pan. Three months later, the ongoing recovery seems to be a lasting one, given the economic rally in a considerable number of industrial sectorsand in Europe, even if a few rain clouds on the horizon, in the United States and in China, darken the picture.

In this barometer, we observe that in the United States, the slowdown in consumption, the still unclear outlines of the fiscal stimulus and the investment plan announced by the White House,as well as the rise in interest rates are elementsto be monitored. In the euro area, good newsare accumulating: the easing in credit conditionsfinally boosts business investment; growthexceeds expectations; business confidence hasbeen at its highest for six years; consumer sentimentis on the rise. With the notable exception ofthe United Kingdom, we estimate that businessinsolvencies will decline in Europe and we thusupgrade Spain to A2 from A3 and Portugal toA3 from A4.

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09.06.2017
EKONOMİ YAYINLARI

In the face of Brexit, are British businesses left to sink or swim?

One year after the “yes” vote for Brexit, seen as traumatic, the time has come for the United Kingdom to accelerate the implementation of its exit from the European Union (EU). Prime Minister Theresa May wants to have free rein by calling early legislative elections on 8 June, where her victory is expected.

But have British businesses suffered from this decision over the past year? It is clear that the country’s activity and businesses have been globally spared, even though investment has shown signs of decline. The only significant shock has been the sharp depreciation of the pound sterling’s real effective exchange rate in the second half of 2016, which had little positive effect on the activity of exporting businesses but weighed on import costs.

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30.05.2017
EKONOMİ YAYINLARI

Russia – from recession to recovery, but to what extent and how fast?

Between 1999 and 2008, Russia’s GDP grew by an average of almost 7% per year. In 2009, the fall in oil prices led to a severe recession (-7.8%). Subsequently, the effect of factors that had supported growth ceased. The further fall in oil prices in the mid-2010s, coupled with an unfavourable international context (declining demand in Europe, sanctions, etc.), led to a contraction in activity for two consecutive years (-2.8% in 2015 and -0.2% in 2016). Between 2009 and 2016, the average annual growth rate was close to zero and the growth forecasts for 2017, again positive, remain very low (1% according to Coface forecasts).

However, in their medium-term development plan1, the Russian authorities are aiming for a minimum annual growth of 5%. The need for a change in growth model, dictated by the changing international environment (a sustained lower level of oil prices) seems to be well accepted by the country’s authorities. It is also urgent for Russia to regain a sufficient pace of growth in activity to halt the deterioration in the standard of living of its population, whose proportion of living below the poverty line exceeded 13% in 2015, compared to less than 11% in 2012.

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18.05.2017
EKONOMİ YAYINLARI

UAE payments survey : slight payment delays expected, due to slower growth

At a time when businesses are facing a decline in demand and liquidity issues, a sharper look into payment behaviour is a must. Through the initiative of Coface, a world leader in trade credit management and risk information services, a credit pinion survey across the UAE was rolled out in order to map out major shifts and prevailing trends in company payments. The method was strategic and the objective was fundamental: to study how businesses make and receive payments, generating a wealth of economic data and market insights that can support stakeholders in making better informed decisions. The diversified economy of the UAE has weath-ered the volatility of a difficult year, with experts reporting signs of strong recovery. Today, at a time when businesses are getting back on track, revisiting credit policies and realigning strategies, a knowledge of key payment trends comes in handy. Coface ran for the first time ever its Credit Opinion Survey. This is a tool dedicated to understand payment behaviors of the companies. Coface has launched this survey for several years in several countries including China, Morocco, China and Germany. The survey in the United Arab Emirates was the first to be launched in this region.

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02.05.2017
EKONOMİ YAYINLARI

Labour shortages in Central and Eastern Europe countries: a growing concern for businesses

Labour markets in the Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) region are continuing to improve. Unemployment rates have reached the lowest levels ever recorded and most CEE economies are enjoying lower unemployment than the EU average. Rising wages and low inflation, amid improving consumer sentiment, have made household consumption the main driving force behind economic expansion.

Nevertheless, while households and the region’s overall economic activity are benefiting from these developments, corporates are suffering. The latter are faced with the strengthened wage bargaining power of their employees and are forced to accept higher compensation costs. Dynamic external and domestic demand, the low birth rate and emigration have all contributed to labour shortages. A rising number of companies are reporting this as a barrier to business expansion. Job vacancies are especially high in the Czech Republic and Hungary.

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27.04.2017
EKONOMİ YAYINLARI

Insolvencies in the construction industry in France: interest rates are key

Since the low of 2014, glimmers of recovery have been seen in the construction industry. Corporate insolvencies are declining. French households are increasingly attracted by bricks and mortar as their purchasing power is at its strongest since 2003, particularly due to interest rates also being at historic lows. However, interest rates, which have been rising since the beginning of the year, could ultimately put a damper on household spending should this trend continue. So, if corporate insolvencies in the construction industry continue to decline from now to the end of the year (-7.7% on average in 2017 according to Coface), the power of households to purchase new property will begin to fall by 9 m2 in 2017. Coface expects to see a 18m2 decline in purchasing power between 2016 and 2018. This means that we will be back to 2012 levels in only two years. The current recovery may indeed be short lived.

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31.03.2017
EKONOMİ YAYINLARI

Çin’deki şirketler arasında gerçekleştirilen ödeme anketi: Şeytan ayrıntıda gizlidir

2016 yılında Çin’deki vadelendirme uygulamaları daha önceki yıllara göre farklılık göstermiştir. Vadeli satış olanağı sunan şirket sayısı azalırken, ortalama vade koşullarında iyileşme kaydedilmiştir. Bu eğilim Çin’de vade kontrollerinde seçici bir gevşemeye işaret etmektedir.
Vadesi geçmiş alacakların ödenmeme risklerinde kayda değer bir iyileşme görülmektedir; ankete katılan şirketlerin sadece yüzde 68’i 2016 yılında vadesi geçmiş ödenme sorunu yaşamıştır (daha önceki beş yılın ortalaması yüzde 80 idi) ve vadesi geçmiş alacak tutarının arttığını bildiren katılımcı şirket sayısı da azalmıştır. Öte yandan, vadesi uzun olan geçmiş alacaklar ile ilgili durum alarm verici bir seviyeye ulaşmıştır; bu durumdaki şirketlerin yüzde 35,7’sinin aşırı uzun (180 günden fazla) vadesi geçmiş alacakları yıllık cirolarının yüzde 2’sini aşmaktadır.
Vadesi uzun olan geçmiş alacak sorunundaki kötüleşmeye ve sürekli olarak değişen piyasa koşullarına karşın, ankete katılan her 10 şirketten sadece yaklaşık 4’ü ödenmeme risklerini azaltmak için alacak yönetimi araçları kullanmaktadır. Bu tablo Çin’de risk yönetimi alanında daha fazla çabaya ihtiyaç duyulduğunu göstermektedir.

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27.03.2017
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Fransa’da işletme iflasları: Yeni yıl, geçen yıl kaldığı yerden başlıyor

Mayıs 2014'te şirket iflaslarında başlayan düşüş Ocak 2017 ayında da devam etti ve Eylül 2012'den bu yana kaydedilen en düşük rakam; 58.031 olarak gerçekleşti (2016 yılı Ocak ayına göre % -2,8). 2017 yılının başı itibariyle yıl boyunca ortalama olarak her 72 şirketten biri iflas etmiştir. (2011 yılında bu rakam 56 idi). Bu eğilimin devam etmesi beklenmektedir. Coface iflaslarda 2017 yılında 2016 yılına göre yüzde 1'lik bir azalma daha olacağını tahmin etmektedir. Coface modelinde GSYH'da öngörülen büyüme ile birlikte şirket marjları dikkate alınmaktadır. Daha iyi haber ise, şirket iflasından etkilenen çalışan sayısı yüzde 2,6 düşmüştür (179.619).

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10.02.2017
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PANORAMA Coface Brazil corporate payment survey

PANORAMA Coface Brazil corporate payment survey

Coface conducts payment studies for a number of different economies, including China, Morocco and Germany. This survey marks the first such edition for Brazil, with the objectives being to better understand the country’s corporate payment habits and the health of its economy.

Brazilian companies are currently faced with a challenging environment. GDP underwent an accumulated contraction of 7.4% during the two years of 2015-2016. Credit conditions deteriorated, against a backdrop of more restrictive credit supply and a tighter monetary cycle (which finally started to marginally ease in October 2016).

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28.01.2017
Kurumsal Yayınlar

PANORAMA:An economic upturn in the face of uncertainty

PANORAMA:An economic upturn in the face of uncertainty

Starting with falling oil prices and financial markets in the winter, the Brexit referendum in the summer and the election of Donald Trump in the autumn, 2016 was punctuated by a series of upsets. Can we hope for more calm – or even improvements in 2017?

Although the end of 2016 was marked by the upsets in the US, with the unexpected outcome of the US presidential elections and the Fed’s long-awaited raising of key lending rates, neither of these events triggereda collapse in the financial markets. In emerging economies, there has even
been a detectable uplift in recent months – but can this last?

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