YENİ NE VAR?
Türkiye ekonomisi 2015 ve 2016 yıllarında birkaç şok yaşamıştır. Artan siyasi belirsizlikler, bölgesel gerilimler, ABD’deki faiz yükseltme süreci, kredi notunun düşürülmesi ve ülke içindeki güvenlik endişeleri turizm gelirlerinin düşmesine, tüketici talebinin yavaşlamasına, yerli ve yabancı yatırımcıların yatırım iştahının azalmasına ve yerli kurun zayıflamasına yol açmıştır ve yerli kurun zayıflamasına yol açmıştır
Bu faktörler ülkenin ekonomik faaliyetin sürdürülebilmesi için ağır bir şekilde bağımlı olduğu sermaye girişlerinde azalmaya katkıda bulunmuştur. Küresel riskten kaçınma eğilimi ve yerel şirketlerin dolar cinsinden borç ödemeleri , bu ortam lirada sert bir değer kaybına yol açmıştır. Bu durum şirketler kesiminin ödeme davranışlarını, yatırım iştahını ve büyüme beklentilerini tehdit etmektedir. Coface Türkiye ekonomisinin 2016 yılında %2,5 ve 2017 yılında %2,7 büyümesini beklemektedir.
Tüm Coface Yayınları
Fransa’da Ekim 2016 sonu itibariyle 12 aylık dönemde şirket iflaslarının sayısı düşmeye devam etti (%- 1,0). Bu iyi haberi yılın tamamı için de teyit edebiliriz. Coface 2016 yılı için yüzde 3,8’lik bir düşüş kaydedileceğini tahmin etmektedir. Bu olumlu rakam şirketlerin zayıf büyümeye ayanabilme yeteneklerinden kaynaklanmaktadır. Kar marjlarındaki toparlanma sayesinde (finansal olmayan şirketler için 2016 yılında katma değerin yüzde 32’si olarak tahmin edilmektedir), faaliyette ikinci çeyrekten bu yana gözlemlenen benzer bir yavaşlama kaydedebilirler. 2016 yılında olduğu gibi, kısmen cumhurbaşkanlığı seçimleri ile ilgili belirsizlikler sebebiyle şirket yatırımlarının 2017 yılında çok az ilerleme kaydetmesi beklenmektedir. Yatırım sermayesinin korunması en azından şirketler için kısa vadede faydalı olacaktır. Dolayısıyla 2017 yılında da iflaslardaki azalma devam edecektir (%-1,0). Sonuçlar genel olarak umut vaat edici olmakla birlikte, bazı eşitsizlikler de mevcuttur. Dört sektör özellikle bir yıl önceye göre çok daha fazla zarar ediyor: Hazır giyim, tarımsal gıda, taşımacılık ve kişisel hizmetler. Öte yandan, 2016 yılında iflaslardaki aşağı yönlü trendini teyit eden inşaat sektöründe durum daha teşvik edicidir. Bölgesel düzeyde, Ile-deFrance ulusal ortalamaya göre daha fazla iflas üretmeye devam ediyor. Bunun için birkaç açıklama öne sürülmüştür: Terör saldırılarının etkisi veya ekonomideki en fazla bu bölgeyi etkileyen “Uber’leşmenin” doğal bir sonucu (bakınız Aralık 2016 tarihli Coface panorama).
PANORAMA COMPANY INSOLVENCIES
The number of insolvencies in France continued to fall in the twelve months to end-October 2016 (-1.0%). This good news should be confirmed for the whole year: Coface anticipates a fall of 3.8% in 2016. This positive figure is due to companies’ ability to withstand weak growth. Thanks to a recovery in margins (32% of added value for non-financial companies forecast in 2016), they may register a slowdown in activity, like that observed since the second quarter.
As in 2016, company investment is expected to make little progress in 2017, partly owing to uncertainties relating to the presidential elections. Saving invested capital will at least be beneficial to companies in the short term. They will therefore see another year of declining insolvencies in 2017 (-1.0%)
UBERISATION OF THE ECONOMY IN FRANCE:a new weapon of mass creative destruction?
Why is the collaborative economy so captivating in France? First of all, because it is synonymous with youth and innovation. But also because sectors that are experiencing double-digit growth nowadays are scarce. One swallow does not a summer make—France is even one of the European leaders in this market (1), notably thanks to a favourable regulatory environment (like the special self-employed status in Europe). The transactions carried out in the sector should increase twentyfold by 2025 thus continuing their recent trend: between 2012 and 2014, the number of Airbnb users hosted in Paris multiplied by 8. And 14,000 PHV (French private hire vehicle) companies have been created in France since 2010, this increase resulting from both the economic motivations of users and entrepreneurs and/or a lack of a structural supply.
PANORAMA GERMAN ECONOMY IN 2017: STABLE, BUT NOT STAID
The signs for Germany’s further economic development are promising, with a high level of stability. Coface’s expectations for solid growth therefore come as little surprise. This year’s gross domestic product is expected to grow by 1.8 % (seasonally adjusted and corrected for working days). Growth for next year, at 1.7 %, will only be marginally smaller. Since 2015, Germany’s economy has been growing faster than the potential of 1 to 1.5 % set by the German Bundesbank and several research institutions.
The primary growth driver for 2017 will once again be private consumption, mainly fuelled by the country’s record-high levels of employment. Consumers’ purchasing intentions will gain additional impetus, although less so than in 2016, due to lower increases in real wages resulting from
Each quarter, Coface conducts a risk analysis on 12 sectors throughout 17 countries in six regions. For this quarter, the result is clearly negative once again, as eight sectors have been downgraded and only one upgraded. The changes concern North America (increased risks in the retail, textile-clothing, paper-wood and transport sectors), Western Europe(downgrade of the agrofood sector) and Central Europe (downgrades for construction and IT & communications, but an upgrade for the transport sector) and Middle East (downgrade for IT & communications).
This contrasting sector momentum confirms that the balance is still precarious, even in regions that have so far been relatively spared from the rise in risks noted on a global scale (23 sector assessment downgrades, compared to just 10 upgrades for 2016 as a whole).
Abenomi: İlk okun Japonya’nın ihracatı ve yen üzerindeki etkisi çok cılız kaldı. Neden?
2013 yılının başlarında Abenominin uygulamaya konulmasından bu yana, büyük ölçüde uygulamanın ilk oku, yani Japonya Merkez Bankası’nın (BOJ) Nisan 2013’te başlattığı agresif parasal teşvikler üzerinde odaklanıldı. Piyasalar daima daha genişlemeci para politikası çağrısında bulunur ve genellikle bunları olumlu karşılar. Ancak ilk okun etkileri ticaretle ilgili çok sayıda soru işareti ortaya çıkarmıştır. Bu raporda, aşağıdaki iki kilit soruyu daha ayrıntılı bir şekilde ele almayı amaçlıyoruz. I. İlk okun başlangıçtaki başarısı sırasında yende meydana gelen değer kaybı Japonya’nın ticari mal ihracatını neden arttırmadı? Bu sorunun basit açıklamalarından birisi dünyadaki ekonomik büyümenin standartların altında gerçekleşmiş olması ve bunun Japonya’nın ihracatı da dahil olmak üzere küresel emtia ticareti faaliyetlerini baskılaması sebebiyle dış güçleri suçlamak olabilir. Daha yapısal bir sebep ise, Japon ihracatçıların “piyasaya göre fiyatlandırma” davranışıdır. Bu yaklaşım ihracat fiyatlarını yurt içi fiyatların döviz eşdeğeri seviyesinde sabit tutmaktadır (yenin seviyesine rağmen). Dolayısıyla Japonya’nın ihracatına olan talebin canlandırılması sınırlı seviyede kalacaktır. Japon ihracatçıların bu piyasaya göre fiyatlandırma davranışı BOJ tarafından olumlu karşılanmayabilir, ancak büyük ölçüde ihracata dönük olduklarından dolayı, son yıllarda Japon yeninin değer kaybetmesinden bu yana Japon imalatçıların faaliyet karlarının artmasına katkıda bulunmuştur.
PANORAMA MEXICO’S ECONOMY: MORE DIFFICULT TIMES AHEAD
Mexico’s economy has been increasing above the Latin American average since 2012. While the region contracted by 0.5 % in 2015, Mexico, its second largest economy, grew by 2.5 %. Looking ahead however, the outlook is less optimistic. Coface forecasts that the country’s GDP will grow by 1.6 % in 2016 and 1.5 % in 2017.
A less supportive global environment is the key rationale behind this expected slowdown. The US presidential elections have created volatility in the Mexican market, due to its strong economic dependence on its northern neighbour. The less open approach to trade shown by the presidential andidates is also threatening the future of of trade relations. Beyond this political issue, Coface expects that the US economy will continue to slow in 2017 (to record +1.5%, following +1.6% in 2016). Against this backdrop, along with lackluster industrial activity in the US, the Mexican manufacturing sector is likely to disappoint again. Moreover, the slump in oil production, with low international prices, continues to represent a major concern on the fiscal front. Public debt rose to 42.3 % in 2015, up from 38.3 % in 2013, and is expected to reach 45 % by the end of this year.
This deteriorating macroeconomic outlook is clearly having repercussions at micro level. Momentum is therefore slowing in private consumption-related sectors. Coface is downgrading its risk assessment for the country’s retail and automotive sectors, while commodity dependent sectors remain at risk.
PANORAMA LATIN AMERICA: WHY ARE MANUFACTURING EXPORTS STILL LACKLUSTER?
Up until 2014, Latin America’s exports were boosted by China’s vast appetite for raw materials and the hike in their international prices. The region´s abundant natural resources brought economic gains during the commodity bonanza period and it became a major supplier of basic products,
particularly to China. However, this trend resulted in appreciation pressures on exchange rates in many countries in the region. As a consequence, the manufacturing sector became much more exposed to international competition than the primary sector. Local output was thus set aside, in favour of imports, to meet rising domestic demand. Countries in Latin America seemed unable to compete with low-income countries for the production of unsophisticated goods, or with advanced countries for high value products and technological services.
French growth has taken a time-out in Q2. The political uncertainties in the United Kingdom, the strikes in May and the floods affecting Ile-deFrance are all likely suspects responsible for this surprise halt. However, the figures are expected to recover in Q3. The extent of the negative impact of stocks in the second quarter suggests we can forecast a particularly good rebound. Household confidence grew in August, and business confidence continues to outperform its long-term average. The risks facing the French economy remain primarily external, originating mainly from our trading partners who one by one are taking the tricky step of planning a referendum. Coming just a few weeks after Brexit, the Italian government would not survive if the electorate decides to vote against its proposed reforms to the Senate. There is every likelihood that France will suffer a significant economic fallout from any prolongedperiod of political uncertainty in Italy (even though this risk has not yet actually materialised in the case of the UK).Daha Fazlasını Oku
As a follow-up to the survey on Moroccan companies' payment periods published in May 2015, Coface here presents the results of the second edition. Based on the same principle as the 2015 survey, it seeks to analyse changes in Moroccan companies' behaviours and their perceptions of
the economic situation. Companies' payment behaviour remains a relevant indicator of the economic situation. An extension of payment periods and an increase in delays in transactions between companies indicate that they face problems. 2016 will be a difficult year for the Moroccan
economy, which is facing a slowdown in activity because of the poor performances of the agricultural sector. Even though the non-agricultural economy is proving to be resilient, payment periods tend to increase in all sectors and the companies surveyed expect activity to stagnate. Late payments continue to be one of the main obstacles to hiring and investment.
The agrofood sector remains one of the most important sectors for North African economies. Although its contribution varies across the region, in 2014 it accounted for 9.5% of total gross added value in Tunisia, 12.7% in Algeria, 13% in Egypt and 15.6% in Morocco. In 2015, the sector provided employment to 21.7% of the total labour force in Egypt, 15% in Tunisia and approximately 40% in Morocco.
In general, some of the favourable factors boosting the sector include rising populations, increasing demand for processed food, higher per capita incomes and improved production capacities.
Nevertheless, local conditions and government strategies are major influencers on the specific challenges faced by each By Seltem IYIGUN, Coface MENA economist country. In Morocco, the government has been making the development of the agricultural sector a priority since 2008,
ensuring continued levels of investments. In Algeria, the government has recently begun promoting the importance of food self-sufficiency. Rising disposable incomes and changing consumer habits in Egypt have boosted domestic consumption for the agrofood sector.
The year 2015 brought a good mix of conditions for Central and Eastern Europe. Average GDP growth for the CEE region was 3.3% in 2015, after 2.6% in 2014. Economies benefited from rising domestic demand. This included both, growing private consumption, supported by declining
unemployment and growing wages, and increasing investments in most economies. Important support came from EU funds which CEE countries were efficient users of in the final year of validity of the ‘old’ EU budget. At the same time, CEE countries remained active exporters focusing on Eurozone enjoying a GDP growth of 1.6% and looking for new markets.
The CEE Top 500 ranks the 500 biggest companies in the region by turnover.These top players increased their turnover by 4.2% to nearly 593 billion EUR and enlarged their staff by 0.5%. Overall 4.3% of the total labor force in the region is employed by the companies of the CEE Top 500 which has a positive effect on unemployment rates. The ongoing upward trend was also recorded by the majority of the sectors in the CEE Top 500. Twelve out of thirteen sectors increased their turnover compared to the previous year. Strong rises were achieved by textiles, leather & clothing on +14.8% and automotive & transport on +10.3%. The only sector to see a decrease in its turnover was minerals, chemicals, petroleum, plastics & pharma on -8.3%. Favorable business conditions extended into 2016. The forecast for the CEE region in 2016 is nearly on the same level as
2015 with an estimated average growth rate of 3.0%. A further improvement in the labor market and growing confidence will strengthen household consumption as the main growth driver of the CEE economies. The contribution of investments will not be as high as last year due to a slow start of new EU co-financed projects weakening the expansion of the construction sector and various other associated industries. On the external side CEE countries will remain active exporters, although the slowdown in global trade may hamper their ambitions.
PANORAMA US pharmaceuticals have enjoyed their time in the sun, but is it time to get out the umbrellas?
Despite having the highest healthcare expenditure of all industrialised nations (17.1% of GDP in 2013), the US public health outcomes are being outperformed by other advanced nations. Back in 2010, the introduction of the Affordable Care Act (ACA) (1) was designed to correct these shortcomings, in particular by increasing health insurance coverage. Yet beyond this question of coverage, cost has become a crucial issue. Households are finding that the high price of medicines is becoming prohibitive. This has led to a rising call for reform (especially during the presidential campaign). A drop in prices would certainly affect the bottom line of the companies working in this sector, especially the laboratories who would be forced to review their operations and cut back on research D and development (R&D) spending.Daha Fazlasını Oku
2016 marks the first time Coface has carried out a payment survey for Germany. This follows on from other surveys presented this year for China, seven other Asia-Pacific countries and Morocco. The German survey shows that, despite the country’s solid economic situation, nearly 84% of companies are affected by delays in payments. Nevertheless, the positive situation of German companies is reflected in their assessment of a slight reduction in financial volumes of outstanding receivables over the past year. Payment delays for the companies surveyed remain within manageable temporary limits. Potential liquidity risks from very long overdue receivables are thus comparably low.
The picture across the business sectors is mixed. According to Coface’s calculations, payment delays amount to 41.4 days on a cross-sector average. However, some segments report much longer payment delays, particularly the Mechanics and Precision Industries (60.0 days) and Transportation (55.2 days). The Chemicals/Oils/Minerals and IT /Telecommunication sectors have enjoyed the shortest overdue periods.
Questioned on their expectations regarding overdues, the “optimists” and “pessimists” are fairly balanced. While Transportation and the Wholesale trade expect a worsening, Paper/Packaging/Printing and the Mechanics/Precision Industries anticipate significant improvements
China’s ongoing structural reforms have shifted to a greater focus on services and consumption, making the country’s twospeed economy even more evident. The divide between winning and losing sectors is linked to their medium and longer term growth potential, relevant government policies and structural demand.
The sector winners and losers indicate the longer term growth prospects, while Coface’s updated quarterly sector risk assessments point to the short-term credit risks for Chinese corporates in 12 sectors. In general, sector winners likely to enjoy brighter longer term growth outlooks, such as pharmaceuticals and retail, have been assigned with low or medium risk assessments. The Information communication technologies (ICT) segment is an exception to this, being a sector winner assigned with a high risk rating. This would indicate that the credit risks of Chinese corporates in the ICT sector are probably high due to keener regional competition, despite the market’s strong longer-term growth potential.
Coface updates its risks outlook for 12 business sectors in 6 regions every quarter. For the first time, these regional assessments are accompanied by detailed sectoral assessments for 17 countries (see appendixes page 6): United States, Japan, Germany, France, United Kingdom, Italy,
Spain, China, India, Brazil, Mexico, Poland, Russia, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, UAE and South Africa. While the "balance of risks" currently seems to be more even than in Q1 (6 downgrades for 7 upgrades, compared to 9 downgrades for only 2 upgrades in Q1), it continues to mask marked differences from one region to By Coface Group Economists the next. In particular, sectoral risks continue to increase in the emerging world, where 5 of the 6 downgrades have been noted, whereas they have fallen in Europe despite the risks linked to the result of the British referendum.
Unsurprisingly, the sectors linked to commodities retain a high-risk level in all regions, with the slight rise in their prices that occurred during Q2 being of a very modest size at this stage to form a real breath of fresh air. Conversely, the business sectors that rely on household consumption are holding on better in emerging countries, due to the trend towards growth in revenue as well as low inflation being still favourable for consumers. The main exceptions are Brazil, South Africa, Russia and the Middle East (downgrades in distribution, textiles, automotive and food-processing), where the policies of cuts in public spending, subsidies under scrutiny and stricter credit conditions are affecting consumers in the region's countries. The latter are also a source of weakness for the construction sector in Asia, where many companies are highly indebted.
Good growth figures in Europe, rebound in many emerging currencies and oil prices: there was an increasing number of signs of a lull in spring before the British referendum. But this calm is in appearance only, as many "micro" risks appear as soon as we scratch this "macro" surface. And the two largest economies in the world, the United States and China, whose country ratings have been downgraded respectively to A2 and B, perfectly illustrate this tendency. In China, the most widely followed economic indicators, such as GDP growth, retail sales and industrial production, show that growth is stabilising. But company insolvencies are growing sharply. In the United States, hidden behind the continuous fall in the unemployment rate, there are companies whose profitability is being eroded and which are investing less. By Coface Group Economists But the parallels between China and the United States stop there, as these "micro" vulnerabilities are different on the two sides of the Pacific. In China, companies are suffering from overcapacity and excessive debt, which will take time to reduce, while in the United States, companies' problems are more cyclical than structural: six years after the beginning of the recovery process they derived the full benefits from, the turnaround point has been reached and resulted in a rise in insolvencies in early 2016, for the first time since 2010.
If we add Japan (downgraded to A2 in March), it is therefore the three largest economies that are seeing their companies' credit risk increase in this first half of the year. Unsurprisingly, Asian countries are negatively affected by the Chinese slowdown (downgrading of South Korea, Hong Kong, Singapore and Taiwan). Before the British referendum, Europe was - for a change - the herald of good news: the country assessments of France and Italy have actually been revised upwards (respectively to A2 and A3), under the effect of falling insolvencies, earnings that have stopped declining and ever more favourable lending conditions. Central and Eastern Europe is benefiting from the eurozone recovery: Romania, Slovenia, Lithuania and Latvia have been reclassified. In Europe, companies should therefore keep their positive growth momentum over the next few months, unless the consequences of the British referendum and other numerous political
uncertainties spoil the party.
Coface conducts an annual survey to examine corporate payment trends and experiences in 8 selected economies1 in the Asia Pacific region.In 2015, credit extension practices remained largely in-line with those seen in previous years, although there were some signs of more prudent
credit control. Nevertheless, overdue payment risks appear to have increased, adding to financial pressures on Asian companies. Overdue issues varied across different sectors, while the construction, industrial machinery & electronics and automotive & transportation sectors saw a deterioration in ultra-long overdue issues.
Sluggish global growth, characterised in particular by China's loss of momentum, shock to commodity prices… Sub-Saharan Africa has not been spared in the global tempest and seeks to maintain growth against wind and tide. The commodity producers are the most affected. The capacity to adapt to these shocks is crucial for these countries to be able to continue their journey, especially as financing conditions have deteriorated markedly.Some have taken rapid decisions and adjustments have been made via a more restrictive policy mix, but others have found it more difficult to recognize the unsustainability of their economic policies. Nigeria, for example, after unsuccessfully trying to resist the downward pressures on its currency, decided on 20 June to adopt a more flexible exchangerate regime. But does Sub-Saharan Africa, this land of opportunity, still have wind in
its sails? Are these cyclical shocks likely to By Coface Group Economists continue to hinder these economies' trajectory and jeopardise their growth potential?
These adverse winds will probably persist in the short term, despite the relative stabilisation of commodity prices since the start of the year. Even though the trajectory of the "continent of the future" has been disrupted, and without denying the existence of weaknesses (infrastructure, governance, political stability, etc.), the Sub-Saharan Africa ship is far from sinking. Even the countries that have been weakened the most in the past few years have strong structural points. They could recover in the medium term, thereby providing attractive prospects for companies seeking for opportunities and which are prepared to cast off for an adventurous journey.
Is the recovery finally under way? That is the question being asked after a start to 2016 marked by a series of positive indicators for the French economy. But after several false starts and as many dashed hopes since 2009, caution remains the order of the day. There are grounds for optimism however: growth accelerated in the first quarter and, more importantly, it is no longer solely reliant on household consumption. Business investment appears to be finally picking up and will make a positive contribution to growth this year, for the first time since 2012. The increase in companies' margins made possible by the low oil price and government measures to alleviate the burden on businesses seem to be finally paying off. Company insolvencies are down sharply and are set to shrink by 3.2% for the year as a whole. This trend is reflected in companies of all sizes and in all regions (except for the Ile-de-France and Centre regions).Daha Fazlasını Oku