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12.04.2018
Kurumsal Yayınlar

Tüm Coface Yayınları

12.04.2018
EKONOMİ YAYINLARI

The new Mediterranean trade routes

The return to protectionism on the international scene has, once again, put the spotlight on free trade agreements. At a time when America is closing up, other regions of the world have decided to open their doors, reshaping international trade alliances. This push towards liberalisation could give new momentum to a cooperation attempt set in motion nearly thirty years ago, in one of the world’s oldest trading regions. In 1995, Mediterranean countries embarked on a major project to create an integrated economic area. This ambitious scheme, known as the Barcelona Process, was to be based on a comprehensive free trade agreement. It was to be built on the European model, with the aim of enabling free movement of goods within the Mediterranean region. Where exactly do we stand with this scheme today?

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12.04.2018
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SECTOR RISK ASSESSMENTS • 1st quarter 2018

13 MAJOR SECTORS ASSESSED WORLDWIDE

Coface assessments are based on 70 years of Coface expertise
Financial data published by listed companies from 6 geographical regions
5 financial indicators taken into account: turnover, profitability, the net debt ratio, cashflow, and claims observed by our risk managers

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12.04.2018
Kurumsal Yayınlar

NEW MEDITERRANEAN TRADE ROUTES

Competition between the South and the East because of their economic similarities
Increased regional protectionism 381 new net measures since 2012
Consequences of the Arab Spring
Uncertain business environment

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12.04.2018
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COUNTRY RISK ASSESSMENT MAP • 1st QUARTER 2018

160 COUNTRIES UNDER THE MAGNIFYING GLASS

A UNIQUE METHODOLOGY
• Macroeconomic expertise in assessing country risk
• Comprehension of the business environment
• Microeconomic data collected over 70 years of payment experience

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03.04.2018
Kurumsal Yayınlar

China Corporate Payment Survey 2018: payment delays increase despite rapid and robust growth

The Chinese economy staged a comeback in 2017. GDP ticked up from 6.7% in 2016 to 6.9% in 2017, favoured by strong demand, as well as loose monetary and fiscal policy settings. As a result, risk managers have become more complacent, both in terms of their economic expectations and their risk management procedures.

Coface has been conducting annual surveys covering companies’ payment experiences in China since 2003. The aim of this exercise is to better understand corporate credit management practices and payment experiences. In our latest survey, data collection was conducted during the final quarter of 2017, and valid responses were received from 1,003 companies.

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30.03.2018
Kurumsal Yayınlar

The singularity of political risk in Central and Eastern Europe

With the ongoing wave of elections in the Central and Eastern Europe region, CEE countries are experiencing a key period of change in a context of political risk and economic acceleration, which currently seem to be the two crucial issues attributed to the region. The region’s average GDP growth rate soared to 4.5% in 2017, i.e. the highest level since 2010. However, local politics and national judiciary system changes are creating problems for the region. Worsening relations with the European Union (EU) and a threat of sanctions for Poland have raised additional concerns.

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19.03.2018
Kurumsal Yayınlar

Clash of the Titans: China’s rise fuels competition with Japan’s interests in Asia

China has undoubtedly modelled itself as the new champion of globalisation. Nowhere is this felt more strongly than in Asia. Since its accession to the World Trade Organization (WTO) in 2001, the country has positioned itself at the core of the world’s most important supply chains, rapidly becoming the largest trade partner for many Asian economies. More recently, the intensifying rhetoric surrounding China’s Belt and Road initiative1 – aimed at boosting investments in infrastructure and beyond – has led observers to neglect the role played by another regional powerhouse: Japan. Although China may be king in terms of trade, it is considerably behind Japan in terms of investment. But fears surrounding China’s hegemonic dominance in Asia Pacific (APAC) may have been overplayed: Japan remains a key player in this sphere, and will continue to be so for the foreseeable future.

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12.03.2018
Kurumsal Yayınlar

Companies in France: fewer business insolvencies, but still just as many “zombies”

The number of corporate insolvencies in France has continued to decline at the beginning of 2018: -8.3% year-on-year to end of January. This good performance takes place against the backdrop of stronger growth in 2017 (to 2%).

While all sectors benefited from buoyant activity and recorded a decline in business insolvencies, the construction sector performed best, contributing to half of the total decrease recorded. Other sectors – such as services for private individuals, automotive, and clothing – continue to benefit from firm household consumption at the start of this year, driven in particular by the fall in the unemployment rate (8.6% in the fourth quarter of 2017, after 9.3% in the third), a low interest rate environment, and high levels of confidence.

All regions have benefited from this improvement, including Île-de-France, which had recorded four consecutive years of rising company insolvencies. While micro-enterprises saw their situation improve, larger companies posted even stronger performances, reducing the cost of insolvencies, both in financial and employment terms.

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11.03.2018
Kurumsal Yayınlar

Poland Payment Survey 2018: Payment delays mounting amid robust economic growth

The second edition of Coface’s survey on payment experiences in Poland was carried out in December 2017. The year saw a peak period of economic recovery, with GDP growth accelerating to 4.6% in 2017 – the highest level of economic expansion since 2011. This has created favourable conditions for businesses. The payment survey investigated businesses’ payment behaviour, which mirrors both the short-term economic situation and the more structural business environment. Businesses in Poland will likely continue to enjoy a favourable macroeconomic environment. Coface forecasts that the Polish economy will stabilise this year, with GDP growth reaching 3.8% – a slower pace than 2017, but still solid and even broader based. According to our survey, 9 of the 12 sectors consulted anticipate that the amount of outstanding receivables will decrease over the following months. 51% companies expect that their profitability is going to rise in the short-term, whereas 39% anticipate its decrease. The automotive, energy, and textile-clothing sectors in particular expect an improvement in sales. Conversely, the pharmaceuticals, construction, and metals sectors forecast lower sales in the coming months.

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01.03.2018
Kurumsal Yayınlar

Mexico Automotive Industry: Headwinds coming from the North

The Mexican automotive industry has experienced strong growth since the signing of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) in 1993. The sector representativeness rose, from 1.5% of GDP and 8.5% of the manufacturing output in 1993, to 3% of GDP and 18% of manufacturing output in 20151. It is currently the world’s seventh-largest vehicle manufacturer and the largest in Latin America (after overtaking Brazil in 2014). However, the industry’s bright performance is not perceived positively by all. Since the beginning of his election campaign in 2016, United States President Donald Trump has continually attacked the NAFTA. He has blamed the agreement for the deep trade defi cit that the US holds with Mexico (USD 71.1 billion in 20172) and for destroying US jobs. The automotive industry is one of his favourite targets, and not by chance: transportation and related equipment represents roughly 13.9% of total US exports to Mexico and 33.7% of total US imports from Mexico3. Overall, it is the sector with the greatest trade imbalance within the United States.

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27.12.2017
Kurumsal Yayınlar

Türkiye: Etkileyici büyüme ancak dış etkenler karşısında artan kırılganlık

Türkiye ekonomisi 2017 yılının ilk üç çeyreğinde önemli bir performans göstererek bir önceki yıla göre yüzde 7,4 büyüme kaydetmiştir. Üçüncü çeyrekte ekonomi bir önceki yıla göre yüzde 11,1 büyümüştür; bu G20 ülkeleri arasındaki en hızlı büyüme performansıdır. Özellikle geçtiğimiz yıl ekonomik faaliyeti etkileyen olumsuzlukları göz önüne aldığımızda, bu artış piyasa beklentilerinin oldukça üzerindedir. Bu yılki büyümede temel olarak devlet desteği ile artan yatırımlar ve ihracat belirleyici rol oynamıştır.

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14.12.2017
Kurumsal Yayınlar

France: will the organic agrofood sector be forced to abandon its principles?

The agrofood industry is facing a number of challenges in Europe1, including the central issue of how to share created value. To meet these challenges and consider ways to guaranteea healthy, safe and sustainable food supply, the French government held a General Assembly on the topic of food from 20 July to 30 November 2017. Expanding the organic sector of agricultural production seems to be one of the best ways to achieve this, as this market is booming both in France and around the world. France is the third-largest market for organics in the world (Eur 5.9 billion in 2015, or 7% of the total market; Coface estimates that it is likely to reach Eur 8 billion in 2017), behind the United States (40 billion in 2015 or more
than 40% of the total market) and Germany (11%), and just ahead of China, Canada and the other major European economies.

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30.11.2017
Kurumsal Yayınlar

Germany’s corporate payment survey: a better year, particularly for exporters

Coface carried out its second payment survey for Germany this year, making it possible to compare results between the two surveys. Generally speaking, many of the foregone tendencies were somewhat confirmed in 2017. In some aspects, however, improvements can be detected in the payment situations of German companies. The German survey showed that, once again, despite the country’s solid economic situation, nearly 78% of companies are affected by delays in payments. Nevertheless, this ratio has declined by more than 6 percentage points within a year. The positive situation of German companies is also reflected in their assessment of a slight reduction in the financial volumes of outstanding receivables over the past year. Payment delays for the companies surveyed remain within manageable temporary limits. Potential liquidity risks from very long overdue receivables are thus comparably low and are less than in 2016. As a consequence of the improved macroeconomic environment worldwide, the payment experience of export-oriented companies is markedly better than last year. This could also be linked to greater caution in the granting of credit periods.

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28.11.2017
Kurumsal Yayınlar

Poland insolvencies Focus: Are restructuring proceedings the remedy?

Business proceedings aimed at insolvencies and restructuring have been on rise in Poland this year. Over the course of the first three quarters of 2017 they increased by 14% compared to the same period last year. Most of the sectors in Poland experienced an increase in the number of proceedings. In contrast, the country’s macroeconomics have been performing well. GDP growth strengthened to 4.0% y/y in the first half of 2017. Economic activity is being driven by household consumption, which remains the main growth engine. Household consumption has benefitted from a further fall in the unemployment rate, which has broken previous record lows. Polish households are also enjoying fair growth in wages and the lowest central bank interest rates in history. Unsurprisingly, within this positive economic environment, consumer confidence indicators are high. Slowly, but gradually, fixed asset investments are becoming more evident and are positively contributing to Polish growth. After last year’s contraction (due to a switch to the new EU budget), investments have started to be fuelled again by infrastructural projects and increasing business capacities. As a result, domestic demand - along with stronger exports supported by strengthening global trade dynamics - is secure enough to keep Poland’s GDP growth at solid levels over the following quarters. This positive economic activity will continue to support companies in Poland, but the first signs of an overheating economy (such as supply constraints and labour shortages) will bring challenges for companies and the pace of expansion. Coface forecasts that GDP growth will reach 3.9% this year, before weakening to 3.5% in 2018. The favourable macroeconomic environment has been supporting Polish businesses. The cross-sector average shows that, during the first half of 2017, companies were able to generate both higher revenues (+9.6%) and profits (+5.4%). Nevertheless, profitability indicators have not been overly impressive. The intense competition present in many sectors is hampering attempts to increase margins, despite growing demand and revenues. The retail sector is an illustration of this trend. Although retail has been benefitting from increased consumer spending, the sector experienced a 59% increase in insolvencies and restructuring procedures during the first three quarters of this year.

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21.11.2017
Kurumsal Yayınlar

The UK automotive sector and Brexit – or, how to slow a rolling industry

The UK automotive industry is entering a dry period. The voices of the main UK industry representatives and their concerns regarding the negative effects of a potential hard Brexit appear to remain unheard, while other difficulties are accumulating against the backdrop of uncertainty. These representatives believe that current negotiations between the UK and the EU are, at this stage, unfavourable to them, despite the Prime Minister recently emphasising the country’s will to remain in the Single Market. The prosperous years of the UK’s automotive industry seem to be a thing of the past. Despite its many advantages, the sector will have to renew itself once again if it is to resist the impact of Brexit. At a time when the automotive sector has to contend with multiple challenges, the prospect of a disorderly exit from the European Union weighs on the capacity of its players to invest and innovate. A weakening of the UK executive adds uncertainty to the future of the sector.

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09.11.2017
Kurumsal Yayınlar

NEW CHINESE AMBITIONS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA

- UNBALANCED TRADE LINKS BETWEEN CHINA AND AFRICA

- UNDER THREAT FROM A POTENTIAL DROP IN CHINESE DEMAND

- GLIMMER OF HOPE: A WIN-WIN COOPERATION?

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09.11.2017
EKONOMİ YAYINLARI

China-Africa: Will the marriage of convenience last?

Wolf Warrior 2, released in July 2017, became the first non-Hollywood movie to break into the top 100 highest-grossing film of all time at the global box office. The action movie portrays China as Africa’s protector. Just four days after the release of the movie, China opened its first overseas military base on the coast of Djibouti, embodying the message of the movie. China has demonstrated a particular interest in Djibouti, a small country in the Horn of Africa, as a gateway to the continent, especially since the first Forum on China-Africa Cooperation (FOCAC).

As its name suggests, FOCAC embodies and oversees Beijing’s interest in the entire continent. Since the first Forum was held in 2000, the upturn in economic cooperation between the Middle Kingdom and the African continent has transformed China into a key economic partner for many African countries. However, closer bilateral ties between China and most of its African partners remain centred around China’s growing demand for commodities – particularly mineral resources such as oil, metals and precious stones – and has become subject to increasing scrutiny. Nevertheless, almost 20 years after the inception of FOCAC, it has become necessary to reassess the China-Africa relationship. China’s economic rebalancing towards more domestic consumption is underway, and the slowdown in economic activity is apparent already, despite some signs COFACE ECONOMIC PUBLICATIONS ALL OTHER GROUP PANORAMAS ARE AVAILABLE ON www.coface.com/Economic-Studies-and-Country-Risks of strength in 2017. This should translate into weaker Chinese demand for mineral resources and lower commodity prices – starting with those of crude oil – both of which are lingering tendencies that will reshape the China-Africa bilateral relationship. Declining trade between the African continent and the Middle Kingdom, as well as the shrinking outward foreign direct investment (ODI) flows in the past two years, further reinforce this trend.

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09.11.2017
EKONOMİ YAYINLARI

Embargo on Qatar: Manageable for the time being, but not perennially

On June 5, 2017 Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Egypt and Bahrain (known as the quartet) announced they were breaking diplomatic ties with Qatar, due to the country’s relations with Iran and accusations that it supports extremism. The quartet has suspended all air and sea travel links with Qatar, while Saudi Arabia has closed its borders with the country. This means that overland imports of food and other suppliers to Qatar are blocked. Sanctions have had diverse impacts, particularly on trade, capital and human flows. Nevertheless, Qatar, the world’s largest exporter of liquefied natural gas, has been able to soften the effect of the crisis so far, thanks to its reserves of cash and gold. The government has taken immediate and effective measures which, along with rising energy exports, have been able to mitigate the challenges arising from the crisis. Against this backdrop Coface expects the Qatari economy to grow by 3.4% in 2017 and by 3% in 2018 - although this is far below the real annualised growth of 13% recorded between 2005 and 2014.

Impacts of the embargo on the Qatari economy: Under control so far

Growth figures indicate a slowdown in the Qatari economy but this is mainly due to the floundering oil sector and subdued energy prices. Real GDP increased by 0.6% yoy in the second quarter, a slow down from the 2.4% yoy recorded in the first quarter. However, on a quarterly basis, the economy expanded by 0.5% in the second quarter of 2017 – a recovery from the contraction of -1.5% in the first quarter (although figures only cover the first month of the embargo). The lacklustre oil sector was the main reason for the annual slowdown in the economy. The mining and quarrying sector, which accounted for almost half of GDP on constant prices, shrank by 2.7% year on year in the second quarter of 2017, following a contraction of -0.4% year on year during the first three months. The OPEC agreement, which includes production cuts by major oil producers, has negatively affected the sector. In the second quarter of the year, Qatar’s crude oil production fell to 613 thousand barrels per day (tb/d), down from 656 tb/d in 2016 and 663 tb/d in 20151. Non-oil sectors showed a growth of 3.9% year on year in the second quarter of 2017, decelerating from 5.2%. On a quarterly basis, non-oil activity remained flat, indicating that the economy has been affected by the Gulf crisis. Manufacturing output expanded by 1.2% from the previous quarter.

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19.10.2017
EKONOMİ YAYINLARI

Argentina legislative elections: is the continuity of the pro-business direction at stake?

Since Mauricio Macri took office in mid-December 2015, the economy has started to recover. The exchange rate was liberalised during Macri’s first week in office, price controls were removed, import barriers were lifted, discredited national economic statistics were revamped, subsidies were reduced and the holdout saga was finally resolved in April 2016. The last of these measures allowed the country to regain access to the international financial market after a hiatus of 15 years. Coface subsequently upgraded Argentina’s country assessment to B1 in December 2016. The positive trend did however come, as expected, with short term side effects. Inflation picked up to 41 % in the end of the first year of government, reducing household purchasing power and leading the economy into recession (GDP -2.2 % in 2016). Social protests flourished in response.

The recovery could, however, be nipped in the bud by renewed political uncertainties against the backdrop of the legislative elections to be held on October 22 2017. The government is therefore in a rush to show that the economy is rebounding. This has taken longer than the ruling government expected, although activity is finally gaining strength (GDP + 1.6 % in the first half of 2017 on a yearly basis). A takeoff in the rebound will be subject to the outcome of the upcoming midterm elections. Linked to this, investors became more cautious on the country´s medium term political prospects, after former president Cristina Kirchner announced that she would run for the Senate in the province of Buenos Aires. The upcoming elections that will renew one third of Senate and half of the Lower House will be an indication of the potential outcome for the 2019 presidential race. If Kirchner succeeds in gaining a positive outcome, she may try to return to Casa Rosada, thus putting the continuity of the pro-business direction at stake. On the other hand, if the government´s coalition returns a good outcome, this would raise its political capital for passing reforms through Congress.

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02.10.2017
Kurumsal Yayınlar

SECTOR RISK ASSESSMENTS • 3rd quarter 2017

12 MAJOR SECTORS ASSESSED WORLDWIDE

Coface assessments are based on 70 years of Coface expertise

Financial data published by listed companies from 6 geographical regions

5 financial indicators taken into account: turnover, profitability, the net debt ratio, cashflow, and claims observed by our risk managers

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