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19.03.2019
EKONOMİ YAYINLARI

Tüm Coface Yayınları

08.03.2019
EKONOMİ YAYINLARI

Poland Payment Survey 2019: Robust economic growth has not eliminated payment delays

The third edition of Coface’s survey on payment experiences in Poland was carried out in December 2018 with 293 companies participating in the study. The payment survey investigated businesses’ payment behaviour, which mirrors both the short-term economic situation and the more structural business environment. 2018 saw a peak period of economic recovery, with GDP growth accelerating to 5.1% in 2018 – the highest level of economic expansion since 2011. Such a macroeconomic environment created favourable conditions for businesses.

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28.02.2019
EKONOMİ YAYINLARI

Turkey’s economic slowdown continues, but exports offer some support

Turkey is experiencing a severe economic slowdown, coupled with a jump in inflation, as a result of the sharp depreciation of the lira during 2018 . This sharp depreciation has resulted in reduced consumption, and has impacted investment dynamics in the domestic market. The import-dependent structure of production has pushed the inflation rate to all time high levels, which forced the central bank to deliver a large rate hike in September. Although this rate hike has helped the Turkish lira to recover from these historical weak levels, it caused borrowing costs to rise extremely high, making funding extremely costly for both businesses and households. Growth is expected to remain very subdued and inflation at double digits.

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05.02.2019
Kurumsal Yayınlar

Global economy: industry is stalling

Despite the many obstacles in its path (diverse and varied political risks, high volatility of commodity prices, supply co n s tr a i nt s i n a d va n ce d economies, to name but a few), world growth in 2018 managed to sustain its 2017 rate (3.2%). However, the multiplication of these pitfalls began to slow growth down by the end of the year, to the point of darkening the outlook for the year ahead (Coface forecast: 3.0%). Although the extent of this decline seems modest, it is suffi cient for business credit risk to increase: Coface anticipates that the number of corporate insolvencies will increase in 24 of the 39 countries for which this data is available, which account for 65% of global GDP (Graph 1). This is five and nine more countries respectively than in 2018 and 2017. The United States has yet to be part of this, even though its peak growth rate also seems to have been exceeded.

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05.02.2019
Kurumsal Yayınlar

COUNTRY RISK ASSESSMENT MAP - January 2019

161 COUNTRIES UNDER THE MAGNIFYING GLASS
Macroeconomic expertise in assessing country risk
Comprehension of the business environment
Microeconomic data collected over 70 yearsof payment experience

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05.02.2019
Kurumsal Yayınlar

SECTOR RISK ASSESSMENTS January 2019

13 MAJOR SECTORS ASSESSED WORLDWIDE

Coface assessments are based on 70 years of Coface expertise
Financial data published by listed companies from 6 geographical regions
5 financial indicators taken into account: turnover, profitability, the net debt ratio, cashflow, and claims observed by our risk managers

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20.12.2018
EKONOMİ YAYINLARI

Tighter global liquidity and Asia: not all gloom and doom

Asia's has been under pressure following from tighter global liquidity in 2018, led by a rapid pace of interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve (Fed) of the Unites States (US). Narrowing interest rate differentials have led to slimmer risk premiums for investors in Asian emerging markets (EMs). This drove capital flows away from the region and into US dollar-denominated assets. Capital outflows also resulted in depreciation relative to the US dollar, leading a number of central banks in the region to hike rates and to intervene in markets to defend their currencies. The Fed is expected to continue hiking rates in 2019, which could further aggravate outflows. Our index measuring relative vulnerability to outflows points to divergence in Asia. Some markets will benefit from strong fundamentals, proactive monetary policies, and ample buffers to resist outflows. In these cases, it is likely that investors may have gotten ahead of themselves, and current valuations are not justified. However, some economies remain under pressure. Above all, the relative sustainability of the real external position remains the most significant consideration. This is a concern in cases where buffers are inadequate to cover external exposure. Lastly, countries that do not possess flexible exchange rate regimes may struggle to smooth currency fluctuations, as the reach of monetary policy is limited by the degree of dollarization of the economy.

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04.12.2018
Kurumsal Yayınlar

Corporate insolvencies in France: all good things come to an end

The third quarter of 2018 marks a turning point for companies in France: for the first time in two years, insolvencies increased by 2.3% compared to the same quarter of the year previous. This trend reversal is consistent with the slowdown in growth to 1.6% in 2018.

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20.11.2018
EKONOMİ YAYINLARI

Could SMEs become the weak link in China’s economy?

When considering risk in the Chinese economy, a lot of the discussion has focused on large State-Owned Enterprises (SOEs), or large private conglomerates. However, headwinds impacting an understated group of smaller firms have the potential to be much more disruptive: Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs) account for the majority of enterprises and a sizeable proportion of employment. However, the need to address financial stability risks associated with China’s vast corporate indebtedness – most of which has historically been associated with SOEs – has left SMEs scrambling to access financial resources to meet their working capital and long-term expansion needs.

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07.11.2018
EKONOMİ YAYINLARI

Wind energy: how long will the wind stay in the industry’s sails?

Wind energy undoubtedly has a bright future, with many countries around the world eager to develop this source of power due to its affordable cost of production, its ease of use, and the abundance of wind.

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30.10.2018
EKONOMİ YAYINLARI

UAE: a new place in new world trade?

The United Arab Emirates (UAE) has the second largest and the most diversified economy in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) (...)

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16.10.2018
EKONOMİ YAYINLARI

A new deal of cards for emerging markets

The past quarter has been marked by a continued rise in oil prices and capital outflows from emerging markets (...)

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12.10.2018
EKONOMİ YAYINLARI

Country Risk Assessment Map - 3rd quarter 2018

160 countries under the magnifying glass

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11.10.2018
EKONOMİ YAYINLARI

Sector Risk Assessments 3rd Quarter 2018

13 major sectors assessed worldwide

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10.10.2018
EKONOMİ YAYINLARI

US Trade Protectionism: what are the knock-on eff ects on global value chains

While policies to open up trade have been a standard feature since the creation of the World Trade Organization (WTO) in 1995, the 2008-2009 crisis proved a turning point (...)

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28.09.2018
EKONOMİ YAYINLARI

Central & Eastern Europe Insolvencies: Good times come to an end

A favourable economic environment was not enough to reduce company insolvencies in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE). While average GDP growth accelerated to 4.5%, i.e. the highest level in nine years, insolvencies increased by 6.4%. This latter fgure ends the improving trend in business insolvencies, which decreased in both 2015 and 2016. 2017 saw an increase in insolvencies proceedings in nine countries1 and drops in only fve2. The regional breakdown indicates a wide variety of dynamics, ranging from a 27.1% decrease in insolvencies in Slovakia, through to a slight increase of 2.4% in Estonia and a surge of 40.1% in Croatia.

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17.09.2018
EKONOMİ YAYINLARI

Rising political risks cloud outlook for Asian economies

Political risks in Asia have increased, according to Coface’s Political Risk Model. Asia currently ranks above the world average in terms of political risk, behind the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), Sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America. Although political risks in Asia have remained broadly stable relative to other parts of the world, some exceptions are notable. These risks could cloud the outlook for some economies going forward. Much of the systemic sources of political risk are related to the continent’s dynamic growth and existing social fragilities. It appears that most of the increases in recent years have been due to rising political fragilities, associated with a proliferation of less democratic styles of governance. In terms of geographic differences1, South Asia features the highest political risk score, followed by Southeast Asia. East Asia featured the fastest pace of political risk increases since 2007, led by increases in China. Our model also attaches a terrorism “penalty”, in countries where there is a high number of conflicts and terrorist attacks. South and Southeast Asia feature high levels of ethnic, religious, and linguistic fractionalisation, resulting in tensions between the different groups. Noteworthy examples of this can be seen in India, Pakistan, Myanmar and the Philippines.

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04.07.2018
EKONOMİ YAYINLARI

Feels like déjà vu

Rising sovereign spreads in t h e e u rozo n e, i n c re a s e d protectionism, higher oil prices, capital outflows from majör emerging countries: warning signals multiplied in the second quarter of 2018. Many of these provoke a feeling of déjà vu, evoking the 2012-13 period. At that time, the International Monetary Fund1 (IMF) stressed that the crisis in the euro area was still relevant, and that rising geopolitical tensions and their consequences on oil prices were among the main risks weighing on global growth. And, although the IMF reminded us that optimism was in order with regard to the American economy, the risks of falling back into recession (“double-dip”) after the brief 2010- 2011 lull made headlines in many countries throughout 2012. World trade was struggling to recover, in part because of continued protectionist measures from 2009 onwards. A little over a year later, massive outfl ows of capital, following communications from the US Federal Reserve (Fed), were penalising some major emerging markets. Admittedly, this comparison is rapidly reaching its limits, as several of these signals are not exactly the same nowadays: the price of a barrel of Brent oil then was close to 110 US dollars (against only around USD 75 in the first half of June 2018), while, at 3%, the yield on a 10-year Italian government bond remains half that it was at the beginning of 2012.

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04.07.2018
Kurumsal Yayınlar

SECTOR RISK ASSESSMENTS • 2ND quarter 2018

13 MAJOR SECTORS ASSESSED WORLDWIDE

• Coface assessments are based on 70 years of Coface expertise
• Financial data published by listed companies from 6 geographical regions
• 5 financial indicators taken into account: turnover, profitability, the net debt ratio, cashflow, and claims observed by our risk managers

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04.07.2018
Kurumsal Yayınlar

COUNTRY RISK ASSESSMENT MAP • 2nd QUARTER 2018

160 COUNTRIES UNDER THE MAGNIFYING GLASS A UNIQUE METHODOLOGY

• Macroeconomic expertise in assessing country risk
• Comprehension of the business environment
• Microeconomic data collected over 70 yearsof payment experience

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01.06.2018
EKONOMİ YAYINLARI

Taking stock of global metal sector trends and outlook

The most-widely traded base and ferrous metals have benefitted from a bull market since mid-2016 (...)

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