YENİ NE VAR?
Asia's has been under pressure following from tighter global liquidity in 2018, led by a rapid pace of interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve (Fed) of the Unites States (US). Narrowing interest rate differentials have led to slimmer risk premiums for investors in Asian emerging markets (EMs). This drove capital flows away from the region and into US dollar-denominated assets. Capital outflows also resulted in depreciation relative to the US dollar, leading a number of central banks in the region to hike rates and to intervene in markets to defend their currencies. The Fed is expected to continue hiking rates in 2019, which could further aggravate outflows. Our index measuring relative vulnerability to outflows points to divergence in Asia. Some markets will benefit from strong fundamentals, proactive monetary policies, and ample buffers to resist outflows. In these cases, it is likely that investors may have gotten ahead of themselves, and current valuations are not justified. However, some economies remain under pressure. Above all, the relative sustainability of the real external position remains the most significant consideration. This is a concern in cases where buffers are inadequate to cover external exposure. Lastly, countries that do not possess flexible exchange rate regimes may struggle to smooth currency fluctuations, as the reach of monetary policy is limited by the degree of dollarization of the economy.
Tüm Coface Yayınları
The third quarter of 2018 marks a turning point for companies in France: for the first time in two years, insolvencies increased by 2.3% compared to the same quarter of the year previous. This trend reversal is consistent with the slowdown in growth to 1.6% in 2018.Daha Fazlasını Oku
When considering risk in the Chinese economy, a lot of the discussion has focused on large State-Owned Enterprises (SOEs), or large private conglomerates. However, headwinds impacting an understated group of smaller firms have the potential to be much more disruptive: Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs) account for the majority of enterprises and a sizeable proportion of employment. However, the need to address financial stability risks associated with China’s vast corporate indebtedness – most of which has historically been associated with SOEs – has left SMEs scrambling to access financial resources to meet their working capital and long-term expansion needs.Daha Fazlasını Oku
Wind energy undoubtedly has a bright future, with many countries around the world eager to develop this source of power due to its affordable cost of production, its ease of use, and the abundance of wind.Daha Fazlasını Oku
A favourable economic environment was not enough to reduce company insolvencies in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE). While average GDP growth accelerated to 4.5%, i.e. the highest level in nine years, insolvencies increased by 6.4%. This latter fgure ends the improving trend in business insolvencies, which decreased in both 2015 and 2016. 2017 saw an increase in insolvencies proceedings in nine countries1 and drops in only fve2. The regional breakdown indicates a wide variety of dynamics, ranging from a 27.1% decrease in insolvencies in Slovakia, through to a slight increase of 2.4% in Estonia and a surge of 40.1% in Croatia.Daha Fazlasını Oku
Political risks in Asia have increased, according to Coface’s Political Risk Model. Asia currently ranks above the world average in terms of political risk, behind the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), Sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America. Although political risks in Asia have remained broadly stable relative to other parts of the world, some exceptions are notable. These risks could cloud the outlook for some economies going forward. Much of the systemic sources of political risk are related to the continent’s dynamic growth and existing social fragilities. It appears that most of the increases in recent years have been due to rising political fragilities, associated with a proliferation of less democratic styles of governance. In terms of geographic diﬀerences1, South Asia features the highest political risk score, followed by Southeast Asia. East Asia featured the fastest pace of political risk increases since 2007, led by increases in China. Our model also attaches a terrorism “penalty”, in countries where there is a high number of conﬂicts and terrorist attacks. South and Southeast Asia feature high levels of ethnic, religious, and linguistic fractionalisation, resulting in tensions between the diﬀerent groups. Noteworthy examples of this can be seen in India, Pakistan, Myanmar and the Philippines.Daha Fazlasını Oku
Rising sovereign spreads in t h e e u rozo n e, i n c re a s e d protectionism, higher oil prices, capital outflows from majör emerging countries: warning signals multiplied in the second quarter of 2018. Many of these provoke a feeling of déjà vu, evoking the 2012-13 period. At that time, the International Monetary Fund1 (IMF) stressed that the crisis in the euro area was still relevant, and that rising geopolitical tensions and their consequences on oil prices were among the main risks weighing on global growth. And, although the IMF reminded us that optimism was in order with regard to the American economy, the risks of falling back into recession (“double-dip”) after the brief 2010- 2011 lull made headlines in many countries throughout 2012. World trade was struggling to recover, in part because of continued protectionist measures from 2009 onwards. A little over a year later, massive outfl ows of capital, following communications from the US Federal Reserve (Fed), were penalising some major emerging markets. Admittedly, this comparison is rapidly reaching its limits, as several of these signals are not exactly the same nowadays: the price of a barrel of Brent oil then was close to 110 US dollars (against only around USD 75 in the first half of June 2018), while, at 3%, the yield on a 10-year Italian government bond remains half that it was at the beginning of 2012.Daha Fazlasını Oku
13 MAJOR SECTORS ASSESSED WORLDWIDE
• Coface assessments are based on 70 years of Coface expertise
• Financial data published by listed companies from 6 geographical regions
• 5 financial indicators taken into account: turnover, profitability, the net debt ratio, cashflow, and claims observed by our risk managers
160 COUNTRIES UNDER THE MAGNIFYING GLASS A UNIQUE METHODOLOGY
• Macroeconomic expertise in assessing country risk
• Comprehension of the business environment
• Microeconomic data collected over 70 yearsof payment experience
In December 2013, the New Economic Partnership Forum was held in Paris with the aim of reviving trade between France and Africa. At the end of this Forum, then-President François Hollande announced the ambitious goal of doubling trade between France and Africa over five years. A few months later, the drop in oil prices extinguished all hope of achieving this objective and reduced the total value of trade (sum of imports and exports) between these two zones from 73 billion US dollars in 2013 to 54 billion USD last year. In 2017, France also lost its status of leading European supplier to Africa to Germany. This observation symbolises the continued erosion of French companies’ market share in Africa: exports accounted for almost 11% of flows to Africa at the beginning of the millennium, but halved by 2017 (5.5%).Daha Fazlasını Oku
Latin America has experienced a diffi cult period since 2014. The slump in commodity prices has impacted activity via several channels (such as lower investments, export revenues, and a tighter
public budget). After two years of recession, the region’s GDP growth fi nally rebounded in 2017 by an estimated 1.1% year-on-year, and is expected to gain further traction in 2018 (growth forecast: +2.4% YOY). However, this optimistic outlook is linked to favourable global trends than domestic merits. Although a still-gradual tightening monetary cycle in advanced economies (especially in the United States), as well as a soft deceleration in China and the resulting improvement in commodity prices, has aided Latin America, the poor political environment has stained the region’s image in the eyes of much-needed foreign investors – particularly with the multiple political and governmental corruption scandals since 2014.
Despite regional confl icts, the 2007-08 fi nancial crisis, and the 2009-11 eurozone crisis, Western Balkans countries1 have developed a close economic proximity with the European Union via a number of regional and bilateral agreements. However, due to institutional, economic, and diplomatic obstacles, accession to the EU will be a long process. At the same time, due to the region’s strategic importance and with the reinforcement of membership conditions, accession (or a pre-accession status) is likely to happen – especially as membership would divert the region from other interested parties (Russia, China).Daha Fazlasını Oku
The exchange rate risk is still relevant on the African continent, as evidenced by the depreciation of the Angolan kwanza by more than 30% since the partial liberalisation of the exchange rate regime in January 2018. The shock of falling commodity prices, particularly oil prices from summer 2014 onwards, destabilised many African countries. In the wake of the poor performance of its main economies (Nigeria, South Africa, Angola), the region’s growth slowed to its lowest level for 20 years in 2016. In addition to the slowdown in activity, commodity price developments have resulted in deteriorating terms of trade1 and downward pressure on most African currencies.Daha Fazlasını Oku
Positive economic signs continued to accumulate in 2018 during the first quarter. There was sustained growth in investment and a situation of almost full employment in more and more countries, which encouraged households to consume more. Companies are taking full advantage of this virtuous circle and the number of insolvencies in the Eurozone and the United States is expected to fall again this year, by 7% and 5% respectively.
The return to protectionism on the international scene has, once again, put the spotlight on free trade agreements. At a time when America is closing up, other regions of the world have decided to open their doors, reshaping international trade alliances. This push towards liberalisation could give new momentum to a cooperation attempt set in motion nearly thirty years ago, in one of the world’s oldest trading regions. In 1995, Mediterranean countries embarked on a major project to create an integrated economic area. This ambitious scheme, known as the Barcelona Process, was to be based on a comprehensive free trade agreement. It was to be built on the European model, with the aim of enabling free movement of goods within the Mediterranean region. Where exactly do we stand with this scheme today?