3. Çeyrek Ülke Riskleri Panoraması

For the fourth consecutive year,  global  growth  will fail to exceed 3%. At the beginning  of  the  year however, this target did not appear unattainable, as the highly expansionary monetary policies in place, combined with the fall in the oil price and less restrictive fiscal policies, were expected to effectively accelerate growth. But this was not the case.  Who  is  at  fault?  Chiefly  the emerging  markets,  with  Russia  and By Coface Group Economists Brazil  in  deep  recession,  and  with growth  slowing  down  more  rapidly than expected in China, while failing to take off in South Africa or in Turkey. Many  of  the commodities  exporting countries are also struggling. In this context,  emerging  currencies  have depreciated sharply against the dollar. One minor consolation: India is the only major emerging economy which is not a disappointment, with a growth rate of over 7% this year and next year.

In this context, Coface is downgrading several country assessments among emerging markets, particularly in Latin America, which will be in recession this year: Brazil, Ecuador, Chile and Trinidad and Tobago. The level of risk has also increased in Malaysia, Tunisia and Armenia. In contrast, outlook for Hungary has been upgraded to positive, as a symbol of central Europe which is benefitting from the timid Eurozone recovery.