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ASIA PAYMENT SURVEY 2021: SHORTER PAYMENT DELAYS AMID SUPPORT MEASURES

More companies in Asia Pacific offered credit facilities in 2020 as competition intensified amid the challenging economic conditions brought on by the COVID-19 pandemic. However, firms had different responses to credit management despite facing similar economic shocks, including reduced demand, displacement of workers, higher material costs, and disruptions to business operations and supply chains. Firms in China, Japan, Singapore and Malaysia reduced payment terms in 2020, while those in Australia, Hong Kong, India and Taiwan increased theirs, according to the latest Coface Asia Corporate Payment Survey. Thailand maintained its payment terms. On average, credit terms in Asia Pacific were broadly stable, inching down from 67 days in 2019 to 66 days in 2020.

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The risks and opportunities of virtual offshoring

The pandemic will soon be over, but the cultural changes it has brought will continue to shape the economy for years to come. Among these, the normalization of remote work is one of the most consequential. The massive telecommuting experiment forced by the great lockdown shattered many myths about what a remote workforce can achieve. With permanent telecommuting no longer a taboo, employers will be increasingly tempted to hire teleworking talent in developing countries. Many emerging economies are quickly catching up on education and technological development; yet labour costs remain lower by an order of magnitude. More and more office work will be performed in the developing world and then immaterially exported to wealthier countries at a fraction of its domestic cost. This trend towards “virtual offshoring” is driven by strong financial incentives. For instance, firms in a country like France would reduce labour costs by an estimated 7% if 1 out of 4 teleworkable jobs were virtually offshored. Coface estimates the total number of teleworkable jobs in high-income economies at around 160 million. In turn, the number of potential teleworkers in low and middle-income economies is close to 330 million.

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China Payment Survey 2021: Shorter credit terms for most sectors except construction, food and automative

The onset of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 increased the level of uncertainty regarding the business outlook, pushing Chinese companies to tighten their credit management tools as part of the efforts to improve cash-flow positions and remain viable in a difficult economic environment. Coface’s 2021 China Corporate Payment Survey shows that payment terms shortened by 11 days on average in 2020, falling to 75 days, while the distribution of credit terms leaned towards a shorter rather than longer period.
The proportion of respondents offering average credit terms between 31 and 60 days increased from 20% to 30% in 2020, coinciding with the decline of those offering above 120 days to only 13%.

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Germany: More insolvencies in the pipeline

Coface's Northern Europe economist, Christiane von Berg, examines Germany's "hidden insolvencies" in our Focus.

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Country & Sector Risk Barometer: Q1 2021 Quarterly Update

The United States leads the race to global recovery, emerging markets lag behind.

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Coface report looks at China and Australia's trade relationship

The China-Australia bilateral relationship deteriorated sharply over 2020, with China imposing trade restrictions on a number of Australian exports. But there are growing concerns that an escalation of bilateral tensions will see China hardening its stance towards Australia.

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USA: recovery plan paves way for record trade deficit

As the world’s largest importer and second largest exporter of goods, the United States (U.S.) has run a trade deficit since the early 1970s. This trade deficit has regularly been a source of tension in economic and trade policy debates. Most recently, President Donald Trump’s administration has reignited this debate, arguing that it costs U.S. jobs and reflects unfair trade practices by partner countries. Despite escalating trade tensions and tariffs that were intended to reduce this imbalance in trade in goods, Donald Trump leaves a legacy of a larger trade deficit to President Joe Biden’s administration than when he entered the White House four years earlier. After a year 2020 in which trade flows were disrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic, the trade deficit even reached a record high of more than 900 billion U.S. dollars (USD).

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Insolvencies in France: +22,000 businesses left dangling

In France, the number of corporate insolvencies in January 2021 fell by 38% year-on-year – exactly the same drop as in 2020. Although the economic & health crisis has not affected all sectors the same way, insolvencies have fallen significantly across the board. However, taking into account government support measures and the drop in turnover by sector, insolvencies in France should have risen by 6.5% in 2020. Learn more about 2020’s “hidden insolvencies” in our Focus.

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The business insolvency paradox in Europe: miracle and mirage

The true impact of the Covid-19 crisis will remain unclear until companies release their financial reports. We have therefore simulated companies’ financial health by calculating a sectorial solvency ratio (gross operating profit/net debt), taking into account both the negative revenue shock and the positive effect of government assistance. We ran these simulations on 6 sectors in the 4 largest eurozone economies using data on turnover, furlough use, state-backed loans and, for France, the Solidarity Fund. We examined a sample of sectors typically accounting for ~80% of total insolvencies. Sectoral granularity is a key element of our analysis: sectors have not all been equally hit by the crisis, nor benefited from the same government aid. Crucially, not all sectors contribute equally to overall insolvencies, due to overrepresentation in the aggregate figures (even in normal times).

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Middle East & Africa: volatile oil prices lead to varying effects on producing countries, including diversification

The COVID-19 pandemic's negative impact on global GDP growth and trade volumes caused a sharp decline in oil prices. After falling to USD 15 in mid-April, Brent crude prices recovered to an average of USD 41.7 for the year 2020 vs. USD 64.3 in 2019. Coface expects oil prices to remain volatile in the upcoming quarters, with an average forecast for 2021 of USD 60 per barrel at the time of writing. This temporary plunge in prices has affected Middle-Eastern and African oil exporters differently, in line with their national output’s dependence on oil, as well as their fiscal strength and international reserves. Countries like Oman, Iran, Angola, Congo, and Equatorial Guinea have a higher degree of oil dependence in terms of GDP. Bahrain, Algeria, Chad, and Nigeria have a smaller share of their national output depending on the hydrocarbon sector, but are highly dependent on oil in terms of exports and fiscal revenues. Therefore, both categories face a higher risk of economic disruption due to volatile energy prices.

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COFACE COUNTRY & SECTOR RISKS HANDBOOK 2021

Her yıl hazırladığımız “Sektör ve Ülke Riskleri El Kitabı” 2021 yılında dijital olarak yayınlandı.
Dünyadaki en yaygın ticari alacak sigortası şirketi olarak, proaktif bir yaklaşımla tüm iş ortaklarımıza ülkeler ve sektörler hakkında ayrıntılı risk analizleriyle katma değer sağlamayı amaçlıyoruz.
162 ülke ve 13 sektör hakkında Coface’ın genel risk değerlendirmelerinin yanı sıra ekonomilerine ilişkin bilgiler, güçlü ve zayıf yönleri, ticari ortam riskleri, ülke notları ve şirketlerin ödeme ve tahsilat işleyişleri gibi ticaretinize yön verebilecek tüm önemli ayrıntıları bulabilirsiniz.

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COUNTRY RISK ASSESSMENT MAP - Q4 2020

New edition of the country risk map. Consult, download and print the map of the 162 countries assessed by Coface.

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SECTOR RISK ASSESSMENTS 4th quarter 2020

13 major sectors assessed worldwide. Coface assessments are based on 75 years of Coface expertise and on the financial data published by listed companies from 6 geographical sectors. 5 financial indicators are taken into account: turnover, profitability, the net debt ratio, cashflow, and claims observed by our risk managers.

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Poland Corporate Payment Survey 2021:amid support programmes, corporate payment delays have shortened during the pandemic

The fifth edition of Coface’s survey on corporate payment experience in Poland was carried out in November 2020, with330 companies participating in the study. At that time, Poland was being hit by a second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic, with a significantly higher number of infections than during the first wave in spring. Nevertheless, lockdown measures were slightly less restrictive in autumn 2020in order to limit the economic contraction. According to preliminary data, GDP growth in Poland dropped by2.8% and should then recover in 2021, reaching 4.0%according to Coface’s forecast.  

Despite the deepest recession recorded since the collapse of communism, the Polish economy and companies were supported by various government measures aimed at softening the impact of pandemic on business activity. These measures also affected payment delays, which paradoxically decreased despite the significant economic contraction triggered by the pandemic. Indeed, our study shows that Polish companies experienced average payment delays of48 days in 2020, i.e. 9 days less than in our previous2019 survey. The agri-food sector fared best, with payment delays of “only” 33 days. Another paradoxis that the biggest improvement in shortening delayswas reported by transport (44 days shorter than a year earlier), while being the sector at the heart of the mobility crisis, then followed by the construction sector (25 days shorter). However, despite these improvements, transport and construction companies again experienced some of the longest paymentdelays, at nearly 78 and 79 days, respectively. This time around, the energy sector is the one with the longest payment delays, at 80.5 days.  

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An unequal recovery

A year after the first cases of COVID-19 appeared out side China , the uncertainties linked to the pandemic are still considerable despite the announcement of the arrival of several vaccines at the end of 2020.These uncertainties can be summarised in one question: when can we expect herd immunity? This will depend on the speed at which the population is vaccinated and will condition the end of the “stop and go”, i.e. successive containment processes that are harmful to economic activity. Meanwhile, the first half of 2021 should resemble 2020, which was marked by the strongest global recession since the end of the Second World War (-3.8%). Assuming that the main mature economies manage to vaccinate at least 60% of their population (the approximate threshold that theoretically achieves collective immunity) by the summer of 2021, the recovery would then be strong, with world growth reaching +4.3% on average in 2021, while world trade would increase by +6.7% in volume (after-5.2% in 2020). As for corporate insolvencies they declined in all regions in 2020 (-22% in the Eurozone, -19% in Asia-Pacific and -3% in North America) thanks to governments’ support plans, of which the continuity will condition the survival of many companies this year: without them, Coface estimates that the number of insolvencies would have increased by 36% globally last year (vs. an observed decline of 12%).  

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Germany Corporate Payment Survey 2020:German companies have switched to “crisismode” and offer less payment terms

This is the fourth edition of Coface’s survey oncorporate payment experience in Germany,conducted in July and early-August 2020, with753 participating companies located in Germany.Unsurprisingly, COVID-19 and its effects on theglobal and German economy is the predominanttopic of this survey. One major finding is that German companiesare getting worried. This year, only 62% of participants offeredpayment terms, which is significantly less than the 81% in 2019(2017: 83%, 2016: 84%). It is difficult to clearly assess if the lackof payment terms is exclusively the result of COVID-19, or if thisis part of a general “new normality”. This can only be clarifiedby the data of the following years. Nevertheless, this year,more customers pointed to the tight liquidity of the market orexplicitly named COVID-19 and its effects1 as the main reasonsfor offering payment terms. The preference for shorter paymentterms increased. Half of the surveyed companies requestedpayments to be made between 0 and 30 days.    

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Global renewable energies: continued ascension despite the COVID-19 pandemic

Renewables have strengthened over the past 20 years , particularly in the power generation sector, increasingly gaining market shares from traditional energy sources such as coal, oil and nuclear. China is a major producer of renewable energy and a global leader in energy transition.

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The Netherlands Corporate Payment Survey 2020: More payment delays alongside COVID-19

This study is the very first Coface surveyon corporate payment experience in theNetherlands. Originally, this survey hadbeen conducted between February andearly-March 2020 (the first quarter of2020, Q1 2020), with 301 participatingcompanies located in the country. However, at the end ofthe survey period, COVID-19 struck the world and changedthe economic outlook drastically. Accordingly, in order tofactor in this change of companies’ payment experience,we conducted a new survey between early-May and lateJune (the second quarter of 2020, Q2 2020), in which 114companies participated. The results differ remarkablywithin these few months. Admittedly, some might be due tothe different set of participants, but others mirror the neweconomic status-quo. 

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Post-pandemic production relocation: an opportunity for CEE countries

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
The COVID-19 crisis has triggered a discussion on increasing supply chain resilience to foreign supply shocks. Before the pandemic’s arrival in Europe, a lockdown of factories that temporarily suspended manufacturing in China put the supply of intermediary goods at risk. In order to limit such risks, supply chain managers are likely to diversify their sources of supply. While China is not expected to lose its position of global supplier, the aftermath of the pandemic could bring opportunities for Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries in this diversification process, with a higher share in global supply chains.

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Global Transport: What does the future hold beyond COVID-19?

The COVID-19 pandemic has triggered a mobility crisis, mainly because of physical distancing requirements and the necessity to avoid confined spaces, to limit the virus’ propagation. This has had a disastrous impact on the global transport sector1, with air passenger transport being the most affected segment. According to IATA (International Air Transport Association), air traffic decreased by 94% year-on-year (YoY) in April 2020, and is not expected to return to its pre-COVID level before several years. Moreover, other segments of the transport sector (maritime, rail) are also experiencing a strong deterioration in activity at the global level, even though some markets (such as rail freight between China and Europe) are benefiting from the situation. The crisis is also affecting planemakers and their suppliers, whose financial health heavily relies on aircraft activity.

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