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In the COVID-19 aftermath, Latin American exports towards China should continue to gain ground at the United States’ expense

The trade relationship between China and Latin America has expanded considerably over the past two decades, gradually standing out (compared to the United States) as an important market for the region’s exports.

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HAS THE GLOBAL RETAIL SECTOR RETURNED TO NORMAL?

The retail sector’s activity has been affected by COVID-19 through social distancing measures and closure of stores. However, the effect of the pandemic on the retail sector varies across countries.

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New wave of post-pandemic social movements: International trade as a collateral victim

While the restrictions linked to the COVID-19 pandemic put a stop to the resurgence of social movements, a new wave is on the horizon. The resurgence of mass protests, which had already been strong since 2017, mainly in emerging countries, is expected to accelerate again due to the unprecedented deterioration of socio-economic indicators.

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Germany Corporate Payment Survey 2021

For the second consecutive year, although Germany experienced a strong recession, the number and duration of payment delays in the country both decreased. Learn more in the fifth edition of our Germany Corporate Payment Survey.

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What perspectives for the United Arab Emirates after COVID-19?

Middle East & Turkey economist Seltem Iyigun investigates the perspectives for the United Arab Emirates following the coronavirus pandemic in this Coface Focus.

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Will the electric vehicle metals boom last?

Metals used in electric vehicles are in high demand, as these cars at the forefront of a revolution in the automotive industry. Stringent regulations, States’ support schemes, and customers’ willingness to buy and own EV are bolstering demand for these vehicles. However, imbalances between supply and demand are pushing prices higher, while EV market shares have not overtaken that of traditional engines.

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Country & Sector Risk Barometer: Q2 2021 Quarterly Update

Global GDP growth rate for 2021 revised upwards; Coface forecasting model indicates an 11% growth in world trade for this year.

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ASIA PAYMENT SURVEY 2021: SHORTER PAYMENT DELAYS AMID SUPPORT MEASURES

More companies in Asia Pacific offered credit facilities in 2020 as competition intensified amid the challenging economic conditions brought on by the COVID-19 pandemic. However, firms had different responses to credit management despite facing similar economic shocks, including reduced demand, displacement of workers, higher material costs, and disruptions to business operations and supply chains. Firms in China, Japan, Singapore and Malaysia reduced payment terms in 2020, while those in Australia, Hong Kong, India and Taiwan increased theirs, according to the latest Coface Asia Corporate Payment Survey. Thailand maintained its payment terms. On average, credit terms in Asia Pacific were broadly stable, inching down from 67 days in 2019 to 66 days in 2020.

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The risks and opportunities of virtual offshoring

The pandemic will soon be over, but the cultural changes it has brought will continue to shape the economy for years to come. Among these, the normalization of remote work is one of the most consequential. The massive telecommuting experiment forced by the great lockdown shattered many myths about what a remote workforce can achieve. With permanent telecommuting no longer a taboo, employers will be increasingly tempted to hire teleworking talent in developing countries. Many emerging economies are quickly catching up on education and technological development; yet labour costs remain lower by an order of magnitude. More and more office work will be performed in the developing world and then immaterially exported to wealthier countries at a fraction of its domestic cost. This trend towards “virtual offshoring” is driven by strong financial incentives. For instance, firms in a country like France would reduce labour costs by an estimated 7% if 1 out of 4 teleworkable jobs were virtually offshored. Coface estimates the total number of teleworkable jobs in high-income economies at around 160 million. In turn, the number of potential teleworkers in low and middle-income economies is close to 330 million.

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China Payment Survey 2021: Shorter credit terms for most sectors except construction, food and automative

The onset of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 increased the level of uncertainty regarding the business outlook, pushing Chinese companies to tighten their credit management tools as part of the efforts to improve cash-flow positions and remain viable in a difficult economic environment. Coface’s 2021 China Corporate Payment Survey shows that payment terms shortened by 11 days on average in 2020, falling to 75 days, while the distribution of credit terms leaned towards a shorter rather than longer period.
The proportion of respondents offering average credit terms between 31 and 60 days increased from 20% to 30% in 2020, coinciding with the decline of those offering above 120 days to only 13%.

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Germany: More insolvencies in the pipeline

Coface's Northern Europe economist, Christiane von Berg, examines Germany's "hidden insolvencies" in our Focus.

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Country & Sector Risk Barometer: Q1 2021 Quarterly Update

The United States leads the race to global recovery, emerging markets lag behind.

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Coface report looks at China and Australia's trade relationship

The China-Australia bilateral relationship deteriorated sharply over 2020, with China imposing trade restrictions on a number of Australian exports. But there are growing concerns that an escalation of bilateral tensions will see China hardening its stance towards Australia.

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USA: recovery plan paves way for record trade deficit

As the world’s largest importer and second largest exporter of goods, the United States (U.S.) has run a trade deficit since the early 1970s. This trade deficit has regularly been a source of tension in economic and trade policy debates. Most recently, President Donald Trump’s administration has reignited this debate, arguing that it costs U.S. jobs and reflects unfair trade practices by partner countries. Despite escalating trade tensions and tariffs that were intended to reduce this imbalance in trade in goods, Donald Trump leaves a legacy of a larger trade deficit to President Joe Biden’s administration than when he entered the White House four years earlier. After a year 2020 in which trade flows were disrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic, the trade deficit even reached a record high of more than 900 billion U.S. dollars (USD).

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Insolvencies in France: +22,000 businesses left dangling

In France, the number of corporate insolvencies in January 2021 fell by 38% year-on-year – exactly the same drop as in 2020. Although the economic & health crisis has not affected all sectors the same way, insolvencies have fallen significantly across the board. However, taking into account government support measures and the drop in turnover by sector, insolvencies in France should have risen by 6.5% in 2020. Learn more about 2020’s “hidden insolvencies” in our Focus.

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The business insolvency paradox in Europe: miracle and mirage

The true impact of the Covid-19 crisis will remain unclear until companies release their financial reports. We have therefore simulated companies’ financial health by calculating a sectorial solvency ratio (gross operating profit/net debt), taking into account both the negative revenue shock and the positive effect of government assistance. We ran these simulations on 6 sectors in the 4 largest eurozone economies using data on turnover, furlough use, state-backed loans and, for France, the Solidarity Fund. We examined a sample of sectors typically accounting for ~80% of total insolvencies. Sectoral granularity is a key element of our analysis: sectors have not all been equally hit by the crisis, nor benefited from the same government aid. Crucially, not all sectors contribute equally to overall insolvencies, due to overrepresentation in the aggregate figures (even in normal times).

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Middle East & Africa: volatile oil prices lead to varying effects on producing countries, including diversification

The COVID-19 pandemic's negative impact on global GDP growth and trade volumes caused a sharp decline in oil prices. After falling to USD 15 in mid-April, Brent crude prices recovered to an average of USD 41.7 for the year 2020 vs. USD 64.3 in 2019. Coface expects oil prices to remain volatile in the upcoming quarters, with an average forecast for 2021 of USD 60 per barrel at the time of writing. This temporary plunge in prices has affected Middle-Eastern and African oil exporters differently, in line with their national output’s dependence on oil, as well as their fiscal strength and international reserves. Countries like Oman, Iran, Angola, Congo, and Equatorial Guinea have a higher degree of oil dependence in terms of GDP. Bahrain, Algeria, Chad, and Nigeria have a smaller share of their national output depending on the hydrocarbon sector, but are highly dependent on oil in terms of exports and fiscal revenues. Therefore, both categories face a higher risk of economic disruption due to volatile energy prices.

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COFACE COUNTRY & SECTOR RISKS HANDBOOK 2021

Her yıl hazırladığımız “Sektör ve Ülke Riskleri El Kitabı” 2021 yılında dijital olarak yayınlandı.
Dünyadaki en yaygın ticari alacak sigortası şirketi olarak, proaktif bir yaklaşımla tüm iş ortaklarımıza ülkeler ve sektörler hakkında ayrıntılı risk analizleriyle katma değer sağlamayı amaçlıyoruz.
162 ülke ve 13 sektör hakkında Coface’ın genel risk değerlendirmelerinin yanı sıra ekonomilerine ilişkin bilgiler, güçlü ve zayıf yönleri, ticari ortam riskleri, ülke notları ve şirketlerin ödeme ve tahsilat işleyişleri gibi ticaretinize yön verebilecek tüm önemli ayrıntıları bulabilirsiniz.

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COUNTRY RISK ASSESSMENT MAP - Q4 2020

New edition of the country risk map. Consult, download and print the map of the 162 countries assessed by Coface.

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SECTOR RISK ASSESSMENTS 4th quarter 2020

13 major sectors assessed worldwide. Coface assessments are based on 75 years of Coface expertise and on the financial data published by listed companies from 6 geographical sectors. 5 financial indicators are taken into account: turnover, profitability, the net debt ratio, cashflow, and claims observed by our risk managers.

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